The NBA Finals are reaching their concluding stages. On June 19, the Indiana Pacers will host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The Thunder took a 3-2 lead in the series after an impressive 120-109 win to acquire a huge advantage.
Can the Pacers force a Game 7, or will the Thunder lift the championship? Check the spread, total, and player props predictions here.
The Pacers are on the brink
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a signature effort in Game 5. They took an early 10-point lead and never looked back. They shut down the Pacers to just 45 points in the first half and scored 59, much like their win in Game 2.
The Pacers did cut it to single digits after a 34-28 third quarter. However, the Thunder comfortably closed out the comeback maestros. Defense was their calling card again. OKC forced 22 turnovers, and they have now caused 18.1 TOPG in the postseason, #1 effort in NBA history.
Decreasing opponents’ field goal attempts has been huge. The Thunder attempted 12 more field goals and two more free throws, which proved to be a decisive factor. Apart from that, they knocked down 14 threes compared to 11 on an excellent 43.8% shooting.
Jalen Williams won the game for the Thunder with a game-high 40 points. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had an impressive 31-point outing too. On the other hand, the Thunder defense raised havoc on Tyrese Haliburton and limited him to just 4 points (0/6 shooting).
Pascal Siakam scored 28 for Indiana but also committed 6 turnovers.
The Pacers have been used to make big comebacks after going down by as much as 15-20 points. However, the Thunder have figured out how to finish the job, avoiding any hiccups.
The home team will need to keep things close or build a big lead in the first half to win Game 6. But it can be curtains the way Thunder is playing.
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, C: Thomas Bryant.
Injuries/Updates: Tyrese Haliburton is a “Game-Time Decision”.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The total has been hovering in the 220-230 range. Except for Game 4, all the matches hit that range. The total has gone “Over” the projected mark twice, while falling “Under” three times. Thus, the margin of “Over/Under” has been too close to call 80% of the times.
But it’s clear that this series is showing higher scores than most championship rounds. Thus, going for “over” can be a safe bet here, too especially when the bookmakers have significantly reduced the projected mark.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 33.5 points: SGA has been the best scorer this series by a long shot. He has put up an impressive 32.4 PPG, scoring 34 or more in three of the five games, en route to a Finals MVP award. I expect him to score at least 34 here, too.
Pascal Siakam O 20.5 points: Haliburton’s injury means Siakam will have to shoulder a bigger offensive burden. He had 28 in Game 5 and has scored 19 or more in four of the five games.
Jalen Williams O 1.5 threes: The Thunder forward was on fire in the last game, nailing three-pointers. It was the first time he hit more than one long-range bomb in the series. I expect him to build on the momentum and make at least 2 here.
Main pick: Points: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 33.5 points for -114 at FanDuel
The Pacers can be in disarray here because their lead guard, Tyrese Haliburton, may not even play in this game. However, the Pacers guard has the depth to tackle that, as T.J. McConnell, Benedict Mathurin, and Aaron Nembhard can pick up the slack.
But the bigger concern for the Pacers is curbing both Williams and SGA. Earlier, only Gilgeous-Alexander was an issue, but now Williams has found his groove. At any rate, keeping all things in mind, I expect the Thunder to cover the spread here and win the 2025 championship here.
Betting Lines:
Safe Spread/Money Line Pick: Spread: Thunder -7.5 for +108 at FanDuel
Photo Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
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