On Wednesday, 05/07, the Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will host the Denver Nuggets (1-0) in Game 2 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals. The Thunder choked a double-digit lead in Game 1, and the Nuggets beat them by two points (121-119). Can the team with the best record this Regular Season bounce back after a major setback? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
The difference in experience showed in Game 1
The Thunder were brilliant for more than 80% of the game length in the series opener. The home team had a 13-point lead with six minutes to go, and Denver had no momentum on either end. But the Denver Nuggets refused to give up.
Then Nikola Jokic took over the game and steadily cut into the lead. He made a big three-pointer with around a minute left. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made a couple of free throws to acquire a three-point lead. T
he Thunder then chose to foul instead of letting the game play out to avoid Denver tying the game by taking the last shot. The approach backfired massively. Jokic made both his free throws.
Then Chet Holmgren missed two free throws. Russell Westbrook ran on the break and then made a wonderful read for a transition pass to Aaron Gordon. The forward nailed the three, and Jalen Williams missed a 55-foot heave to win the game.
It was the second time Gordon nailed a game-winner, and he has massively outplayed Michael Porter Jr. this postseason. Jokic had a monster 42-point and 22-rebound night to lead the way for Denver.
Meanwhile, Gordon and Jamal Murray combined for 43 points. Westbrook had a strong 18-point effort off the bench. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander exploded for 33 points while Alex Caruso had a crucial 20-point night.
The rest of the scoring was brilliantly balanced, but some late-game errors cost the inexperienced Thunder the game. They need to avoid such mistakes, or the 68-14 record in the Regular Season will mean nothing.
Nuggets Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jamal Murray | SG: Christian Braun | SF: Michael Porter Jr. | PF: Aaron Gordon | C: Nikola Jokic
Key bench players: PG: Russell Westbrook.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The first game hit the 240-point mark, which wasn’t that surprising. The bookmakers have allotted identical odds around the score of 223, which was more than any other season opener.
Thus, the template for a high-scoring series is set. It is natural considering the wealth of scorers for both squads. However, I see the total reaching 225, and this time I opt for “under” after going for “Over” in Game 1.
Nikola Jokic to score over 28.5 points: Jokic had a 42-point outburst in Game 1, bullying Isaiah Hartenstein and the undersized Thunder unit at every turn. I believe he will go “Over” the mark again.
Isaiah Hartenstein to grab over 8.5 rebounds: The Thunder center had trouble guarding Jokic, but still managed 9 rebounds somehow. I expect him to hit the mark again.
Russell Westbrook to score over 12.5 points: Westbrook has scored 14 or more in each of the games thus fa,r except one game where he was injured early. Still, the bookmakers haven’t shown faith in him going “over”. But he seems a safe bet here.
Main pick: Points: Nikola Jokic O 28.5 for -110 at BetMGM
The Nuggets showed the Thunder a mirror in Game 1. First, they had no answer for Jokic, secondly, they showed some huge vulnerabilities in clutch. The Nuggets’ core won a championship in 2023, and you can never take your foot off the peddle again.
However, it doesn’t mean that the Thunder are done for here. In fact, they will enter as overwhelming favorites in Game 2. The bookmakers have favored them by more than 10 points. But, like Game 1, I expect the Nuggets to cover the spread of around 10.
Safe Spread Pick: Nuggets for +9.5 for +115 at BetMGM
Bettling Lines:
Photo Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
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