May 9, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) shoots the ball while Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) defends during game three of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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NBA Best Bets Today | Top Picks & Predictions for 05/11/2025

The NBA Conference Semi-Finals have seen the underdogs getting a one-up on the favorites. This makes for an exciting betting slate where each possession has its thrill. So, which way will the pendulum swing again by the barest of margins? In this piece, you can access the predictions related to spreads and player props for the May 11, 2025, action.

NBA Best Bets Today – 05/11/2025

Another playoff day, another banger of a double-header slate! In the first game, the Denver Nuggets will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder during Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Nuggets eked out a gritty 9-point win in Overtime during Game 3. Can they stretch their lead to 3-1 at home?

On the other hand, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the home team Indiana Pacers in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. They won Game 3 by 22-points as their starting lineup was healthy for the first time. Can they tie the series here?

Find your NBA best picks for 05/11/2025 on BetMGM and FanDuel.

Best NBA Bets for 05/11/2025

Bet #1: Player Points: Donovan Mitchell O 30.5 points (-125 at BetMGM)

Mitchell has been unstoppable throughout the series. He has become a delight for bettors who are opting for “over” scoring lines. In fact, many people would have made a ton if they opted for him to go for 35 to 40+ scores in the last two games. The guard is commanding around 33% of the shots, including free throws.

Mitchell is averaging a stunning 41.3 PPG this series and will be expected to go for a big score again. Thus, I am comfortable in placing the “Over” bet here again.

Bet #2: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Over 228.5 (-102 at FanDuel)

Game 3 between the two teams produced 217 points, which was around 15 points below the projections. Thus, the bookmakers have revised their odds to around 227-228 mark. T

hey acknowledge the 240 points and 250+ points reached in the first two games, but the defensive adjustments by this point can curb the scoring substantially.

However, both teams are scoring juggernauts and know how to overcome defensive deterrents. This is one of the huge reasons why I would go for “Over” here.

Bet #3: Player Points: Russell Westbrook O 11.5 (+100 at BetMGM)

The Thunder’s Sixth Man finally calmed down in Game 3 with an 8-point performance. Before that, he had the “Over” mark for points in five straight games.

The bookmakers have been reserved about his scoring projections because they were waiting for him to cool off at this point. It finally happened in Game 3. But I see him rising again to capture a 15-point-ish performance and proving the bookmakers wrong again.

NBA Betting Trends to Know:

Three of the last four games related to the Oklahoma City Thunder have gone “Over” the projections.
The Nuggets have covered the spread in five of the last seven games.
Nikola Jokic has been “Under” the assists projections in five straight games.

Final Picks Recap

Points: Donovan Mitchell O 30.5 (-125)
Thunder vs Nuggets: Total O 228.5: (-102)
Russell Westbrook: Points O 11.5 (+100)

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Betting Tips of the Day

Bookmakers are usually spot on about their projections. Some values can be here and there, but going against projections can often cost a lot. However, you have to take risks sometimes. The home court advantage can be overestimated in many cases, and in such cases, look for patterns from the away team.

Apart from that, the player props bets can have some obvious wagers as bookmakers tend to be a bit conservative in that regard towards the “over” mark.

Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Cleveland Cavaliers

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Indiana Pacers

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Nikola Jokic

Oklahoma City Thunder

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Shubham Singh

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Hi, I am Shubham. I am currently an NBA Predictions Writer on The Playoffs. I enjoy this job because it helps keep me in the loop about the game I love while fulfilling the pleasure I derive from stats. I got into NBA writing through social media interactions in the mid-2010s as I shared my takes on young talents such as D’Angelo Russell. I hope you enjoy reading my pieces as much as Dennis Rodman loved rebounding the basketball!