On Sunday, 05/11, the Denver Nuggets (2-1) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2) in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals. The Nuggets eked out a thrilling 9-point win in Game 3 (113-104) to avenge a 40+ point loss in Game 3. Can the Thunder respond with another major beatdown here in Game 4? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
The Nuggets hold their nerve again
The Nuggets have ice in their veins, or it’d be more apt to say that Aaron Gordon is their ultimate ice-cold killer. The amazing forward scored his third game-winning/game-tying shot in the tenth game of the playoffs. The Thunder led for most parts but once again left the door ajar for the core that won the 2023 championship.
Jamal Murray led the way for the Nuggets with a 27-point performance. His performance was huge as Nikola Jokic shot 0/10 from the three-point line. Michael Porter Jr. finally had a difference-making performance with 21 points, whereas Aaron Gordon collected 22 points. Thus, the Nuggets’ team effort helped them overcome a tough night from their ace yet again.
While the Nuggets’ ace had a hard time, the same goes for the Thunder’s #1 scorer. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander was off all night and shot 7/22 from the field. Jalen Williams picked up the slack with 32 points, while Chet Holmgren had an appreciable 18-point, 16-rebound, and 3-block night.
Overall, the Nuggets showed great grit in the face of adversity, whereas the Thunder showcased their youth, especially with their subpar play in OT. It proves that the regular-season performance may not necessarily translate into the postseason, and you need match-winners like Gordon to prevail.
Nuggets Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jamal Murray | SG: Christian Braun | SF: Michael Porter Jr. | PF: Aaron Gordon | C: Nikola Jokic
Key bench players: PG: Russell Westbrook.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
During the first two games, the bookmakers were spot-on about the high-scoring nature of the series. Game 1 touched the 240-point mark while Game 2 went past 250. In one of the cases, I picked the under, and was proven wrong.
In Game 3, they attached identical odds to the total of 232.5, but I chose under,r expecting major defensive adjustments. And it did go “under”. In fact, the total touched just 204 during Regulation.
At any rate, the bookmakers have assigned identical odds to a total of 227-228. I’d opt for “Over” this time, expecting Nikola Jokic and SGA to score big.
Nikola Jokic to collect over 13.5 rebounds: The Joker has been a monster on the boards thus far. He pulled down 16 rebounds in Game 3, after an 8-rebound performance in Game 2. He had a humungous 22-rebound outing in Game 1. I believe he will have a big rebounding night again.
Isaiah Hartenstein to grab over 8.5 rebounds: The Thunder center grabbed 10 rebounds in Game 3. He had grabbed 9 in Game 1 and 8 in Game 2. I believe he will be in the 9-11 range again.
Russell Westbrook to score over 10.5 points: The Nuggets’ bench sparkplug finally went “under” the points mark five straight games, “over” the mark. He had an 8-point performance, his only single-digit performance apart from an early injury exit in a previous series. I believe he will go “Over” the mark.
Main pick: Points: Russell Westbrook O 10.5 points for -115 at BetMGM
The Thunder will be seething after blowing their second lead of the series. They could have easily been up 3-0 there, but are in desperation mode now. Jokic and SGA both have faced troubles throughout the postseason as the defenses tighten around primary options in the playoffs.
However, the Nuggets have received more support from their role players than the Thunder, showing more depth in the front line. But I expect a comeback from the Thunder here like Game 2. I see them covering the spread too.
Bettling Lines:
Safe Spread Pick: Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 for -115 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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