Osaka faces familiar challenge as Fernandez looks to recreate 2021 US Open magic at Wuhan
The 11th seed, Naomi Osaka, is set to clash with the unseeded Leylah Fernandez in the first round of the Wuhan Open 2025. The Japanese star has been steadily rising back to her old self this season, especially after capturing the 125k Saint Malo title, her first in four years. While inconsistencies have crept in with a few early exits, Osaka’s performances have shown a growing sense of resilience.
The four-time Grand Slam champion made a strong statement in Montreal, defeating Elina Svitolina and Clara Tauson en route to the final before being edged out by Victoria Mboko. Her best run came at the US Open, where she reached the semifinals, her deepest Slam run in years at Slams, before falling to Amanda Anisimova. Across 41 matches this season, Osaka has fired 275 aces, winning 73% of first-serve points, 43.4% of return points, and converting 48.8% of break points.
Fernandez, meanwhile, has endured a modest year marked by sporadic bursts of form. The Canadian opened with a career-best third-round showing in Melbourne and followed it up with a quarterfinal run in Abu Dhabi. However, her momentum dipped soon after, with just one notable result in Nottingham, where she again made the last eight. Her standout moment came in Washington, where she captured her fourth career title by defeating Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets. Since then, inconsistency has crept back into her results. In 44 matches this season, Fernandez has tallied 106 aces, winning 65.9% of first-serve points, 41.8% on return, and converting 43.2% of break points.
Leylah Fernandez holds a 1-0 edge in her head-to-head against Naomi Osaka, having stunned the then-defending champion in a memorable comeback win at the 2021 US Open. It was the match that put the Canadian teenager on the global map, marking her breakout moment on one of tennis’s biggest stages.
| Year | Winner | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | US Open | Round of 32 | Leylah Fernandez | 5-7, 7-6(2), 6-4 |
| Naomi Osaka | Category | Leylah Fernandez |
| 16 | Current Ranking | 27 |
| 319-180 | Career W-L | 222-150 |
| 32-14 | YTD W-L | 25-22 |
| 7 | Career Titles | 4 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 1 |
Still, Fernandez’s past win over Osaka and her knack for rising in big moments could see the Canadian push this into a decider or even script another upset under Wuhan’s lights. But this can also be the comeback of the Japanese, who have been so throughout the season. Regardless of the dicey situation, Osaka has the edge on paper.
Prediction: Naomi Osaka in straight sets
With Osaka at -235 and Fernandez at +188, the odds tilt toward the Japanese star, whose superior first serve and recent semifinal run make her the safer bet.
Here are the betting odds according to FanDuel:
Naomi Osaka: -235
Leylah Fernandez: +188
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via FanDuel):
Total Sets Under 2.5: -200
Total Sets Over 2.5: +140
Total Games Under 21.5: -110
Total Games Over 21.5: -125
Set 1 Winner Osaka: -174
Set 1 Winner Fernandez: +130
(According to FanDuel: FanDuel offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!)
Mandatory Image Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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