All you need to know the opening round Californian combat.
Italian powerhouse Matteo Berrettini is set to battle French veteran Adrian Mannarino in the 2026 Indian Wells Round of 128 on Wednesday. The 6’5” giant is a former Wimbledon finalist who is on the path to rediscovering his lost form. With just 25 wins since the start of the 2025 season, Berrettini will start as the underdog at the Californian desert. Meanwhile, Mannarino has opened his campaign with a success rate of just under 50% this year. Who will emerge victorious in this battle of the contrasting styles at Indian Wells 2026?
The match-up between Matteo Berrettini and Adrian Mannarino has been historically dominated by the Frenchman. While the former has had the more illustrious career with a career-high World No. 6 ranking and 10 singles trophies, Mannarino is also a former Top-20 sensation. The 29-year-old Italian has two Davis Cup triumphs and 11 wins against Top-10 opponents throughout his career. He has picked up 213 wins and 118 losses until early 2026. On the other hand, Mannarino recently made a sensational run to the final at the Open Occitanie in Montpellier.
According to the tennis betting odds on BetMGM, Matteo Berrettini (-265) is the favorite in this high profile opening round match-up against France’s minnow Adrian Mannarino (+205). The winner of this encounter will face No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev in Round-2. Here’s how we are betting on this Round of 128 duel at the ATP BNP Paribas Open 2026 at Indian Wells, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
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Tournament & Round: ATP BNP Paribas Open 2026, Round of 128
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Men’s Singles, Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: March 4, Around 14:30 Local (Approx.)
Court: Stadium 1, Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Best Bet: Total Games >23.5 @ +117 as per BetMGM
Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino Betting Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
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Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino Predictions & Picks
Our Pick: Total Games Over 23.5 at +117 Odds.
Both the previous meetings between Berrettini and Mannarino have been tight fixtures, with either tiebreaks or a single break of serve determining the victor. Although they have finished in straight sets, the contrasting styles present plenty of shifts in momentum. Particularly in the second set, the betting market is showcasing a lot of chaos and fluctuation, meaning that it is anybody’s game. This is why the total games going over the 23.5 mark is a genuine possibility.
Taking a look at the statistics, neither player has won this tournament before. Yet, Berrettini’s serve has contributed massively to his proficient hard court record. The former Grand Slam finalist has 1780 aces on this surface, and saves 70% break points faced. When he is put under pressure, he tends to favor his powerful forehand. For Mannarino to dismantle the Italian, he will need to target the second serves and push Berrettini out wide on his backhand more often than not.
Matteo Berrettini Recent Form
Chile Open 2026: Round of 32
Rio Open 2026: Quarterfinal
Argentina Open 2026: Round of 16
Adrian Mannarino Recent Form
Acapulco Open 2026: Round of 32
Dallas Open 2026: Round of 16
Open Occitanie Montpellier 2026: Final
Australian Open 2026: Round of 128
ASB Classic 2026: Round of 32
Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino Head to Head Record
Adrian Mannarino leads the head-to-head against Matteo Berrettini by 2-0.
The first ever match between these two old-timers was contested at the 2018 Australian Open. Mannarino managed to edge out Berrettini against the odds to advance to the second round at Melbourne Park. Seven years later, they met again in the opening round of the 2025 Shanghai Rolex Masters. Yet again, it was the Frenchman who held his nerve in the pressure situations to secure success in two gripping sets.
Event
Round
Winner
Score
2025 Shanghai
Round of 128
Adrian Mannarino
7-5 7-6(5)
2018 Australian Open
Round of 128
Adrian Mannarino
6-4 6-4 6-4
How to Watch Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino at the ATP Indian Wells 2026?
The ATP Indian Wells 2026 can be streamed live on various platforms and channels, depending on which part of the world you are watching from. This includes Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN.
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