Kostyuk vs. Kasatkina: Old Rivals, New Stakes on the Italian Clay
14th seed Daria Kasatkina is set to face Marta Kostyuk in the second round of the Italian Open, setting the stage for a compelling clash of styles. Kasatkina, the current world No. 15, has endured a modest season so far, failing to move past the round of 16 at any event. Kostyuk, meanwhile, comes in riding the momentum of a dominant first-round win over Alexandra Eala in the first round.
Kostyuk’s season has been a mix of sparks and stalls, starting strong with a quarterfinal run at the Qatar Open, where she lost to Amanda Anisimova in three sets. And most recently, pushing Aryna Sabalenka to back-to-back tiebreaks in a tightly contested Madrid Open quarterfinal. However, between those two events, she’s struggled to find consistency, falling short of the second week in most tournaments.
Daria Kasatkina holds a 4-2 lead in her head-to-head battles with Marta Kostyuk, a rivalry that has quietly gained layers over the years. It all began at the 2020 US Open, where a then-rising Kostyuk stunned Kasatkina in straight sets, and she followed it up with another convincing win at the 2021 Istanbul Open. But that’s where her streak ended.
Since then, Kasatkina has flipped the script, winning four straight matches, including dominant straight-set victories in Birmingham (2021) and Brisbane (2024), as well as hard-fought three-setters in Tokyo (2023) and Berlin (2024). With each encounter, Kasatkina has tightened her grip on the matchup, showing her dominance and outlasting Kostyuk when it matters.
| Year | Tournament | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 | Berlin Open | 1st Round | Daria Kasatkina | 4–6, 7–6(6), 6–3 |
| 2024 | Brisbane International | 2nd Round | Daria Kasatkina | 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2023 | Toray Pan Pacific Open | 1st Round | Daria Kasatkina | 3–6, 6–4, 6–3 |
| 2021 | Birmingham Classic | 2nd Round | Daria Kasatkina | 6–2, 7–5 |
| 2021 | Istanbul Open | 2nd Round | Marta Kostyuk | 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2020 | US Open | 1st Round | Marta Kostyuk | 6–1, 6–2 |
| Marta Kostyuk | Category | Daria Kasatkina |
| 27 | Ranking | 15 |
| 228-138 | Career W-L | 395-227 |
| 14-10 | YTD W-L | 11-10 |
| 1 | Career Titles | 8 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
This match could go either way. Kasatkina holds the edge in their head-to-head and brings a strategic, defensive style that has frustrated Kostyuk in the past. But the Ukrainian has shown flashes of big-match grit this season, especially in Madrid. If she can stay aggressive without overdoing it, she has the weapons to trouble Kasatkina. Given her recent form and willingness to take risks, Kostyuk might just have the edge in what could be a tightly contested match.
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk in straight sets
Marta Kostyuk: 8/13
Daria Kasatkina: 13/10
