Poland continue their chase for automatic World Cup 2026 qualification as they travel to Kaunas to face Lithuania on Sunday. The visitors remain close behind Group G leaders the Netherlands. Meanwhile Lithuania have already been ruled out of contention for progression.
After a turbulent start to their qualifying campaign, Poland’s recent resurgence under new coach Jan Urban has reignited their hopes. Whereas, Lithuania are aiming to end their campaign positively. They’re showing spirit in narrow defeats despite being one of the section’s underdogs.
| Bets | Status | Moneyline |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -115 |
| Total Shots | Over 22.5 | -286 |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 8.5 | -163 |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | +105 |
| Total Cards | Under 3.5 | +125 |
Lithuania head into this fixture after a 2-1 defeat in Finland. Pijus Sirvys gave them an early lead in that match but lost it later. Under Edgaras Jankauskas, the team has shown resilience. Notably, they pushed the Netherlands in a close 3-2 loss last month.
However, suspension rules out Artur Dolznikov. As a result, Fedor Cernych could earn his 101st cap. Torino midfielder Gvidas Gineitis, who has been directly involved in four goals during qualifying, will remain key. Meanwhile, Gytis Paulauskas is expected to lead the line again.
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Jan Urban’s side are arriving with renewed belief after a 3-1 win over Finland and a friendly win against New Zealand. Captain Robert Lewandowski struck the winner in the reverse fixture. He remains the talisman for the side, supported by vice-captain Piotr Zielinski in midfield.
Injuries rule out Nicola Zalewski, Sebastian Walukiewicz, and Adam Buksa. This opens the door for Jakub Kaminski or Michal Skoras to impress on the left. On the right, Matty Cash and Sebastian Szymanski are expected to combine again. Poland are aiming for a more comfortable performance than their narrow 1-0 home win earlier in qualifying.
Even with Poland heavily favored, this match could be tighter than many expect, justifying the under 2.5 goals at -115. Lithuania’s low scoring threat and Poland’s cautious approach in away qualifiers contribute to this line. In head-to-head showings, Poland have often won with narrow margins. Additionally, defensive solidity has frequently been prioritized in away fixtures. The statistical history between the two sides also supports fewer goals. In only one of three previous meetings, it exceeded 2.5 total goals.
Backing Robert Lewandowski at -150 to score anytime is a steady bet considering his track record for Poland. He’s the country’s all-time leading scorer. He has already bagged 86 goals in 160 appearances. In qualifying and competitive matches, he often remains Poland’s central attacking outlet. Given his role and Poland’s dominance expected in this match, he will likely get service and chances, making that price credible.
A more speculative but reasonable market is Piotr Zielinski at +140 for a goal or assist. Zielinski recently struck the lone goal in Poland’s friendly win over New Zealand. He also regularly shapes the midfield’s creativity. His inclusion as vice-captain reflects the trust in his attacking contributions. With Poland expected to control possession, Zielinski could find opportunities to provide a key pass or finish a move himself.
| Picks | Moneyline |
| Robert Lewandowski to score first | +200 |
| Robert Lewandowski to score anytime | -150 |
| Sebastian Szymanski to assist anytime | +280 |
| Piotr Zielinski to either score or assist | +240 |
| Bartosz Slisz to see a card | +220 |
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A 2-0 win for Poland seems the most probable outcome based on form, strength, and historical trends. Poland are sitting well above Lithuania in FIFA rankings and have consistently managed narrow wins over this opponent.
Lithuania’s offensive limitations and Poland’s ability to defend tightly away from home point to a match controlled by the visitors, with only a modest margin. Given Lewandowski’s scoring consistency and Zielinski’s creative influence, two goals without reply is a realistic estimate here.
The Lithuania vs Poland UEFA World Cup qualifiers clash is on October 12, 2025, at the Darius and Girenas Stadium, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Poland are favorites to win with a moneyline at -225, to draw at +340 and for Lithuania to win at +650.
Robert Lewandowski to score anytime: -150
Sebastian Szymanski to assist anytime: +280
Piotr Zielinski to either score or assist: +240
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