Carlos Alcaraz waits to be announced for his semifinal match against Jack Draper at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif., Saturday, March 15, 2025.

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Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head and Prediction for ATP Italian Open 2025 Round of 16

A Clay-Court Duel: Alcaraz vs. Khachanov in the Round of 16

Carlos Alcaraz waits to be announced for his semifinal match against Jack Draper at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif., Saturday, March 15, 2025.

Third seed Carlos Alcaraz is set for a fourth-round showdown against 23rd seed Karen Khachanov at the Italian Open. Both players received a first-round bye. Khachanov was tested early. He took three sets to get past qualifier Roman Andres Burruchaga in the second round before dispatching wildcard Francesco Passaro with ease, delivering a bagel in the second set. Alcaraz, on the other hand, looked sharp from the start, cruising past Dusan Lajovic and Laslo Djere in straight sets to book his spot in the last 16.

Also Read: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic Share A Monumental Italian Open Record That Might Never Be Broken Again

Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz Preview

Alcaraz has been on a roll in 2025. He kicked off his season with a quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open, where he was edged out by Novak Djokovic in four sets. Though he quickly bounced back at Rotterdam, claiming the title with a hard-fought three-set win over Alex de Minaur.

That momentum carried into spring, with a semifinal run in Indian Wells and another quarterfinal in Madrid. His biggest triumph came at the Monte Carlo Masters, where he rallied from a set down to defeat Lorenzo Musetti and lift the trophy.

Next week, Alcaraz advanced to the finals of Barcelona, falling to Holger Rune in straight sets. Most recently, he had withdrawn from the Madrid Open due to leg injuries. Statistically, Alcaraz has been outstanding this season. With a 24-5 win-loss record, he has fired 122 aces, won 72% of first-serve points, and converted 44% of his 273 break point opportunities.

Racing to the finish line 🏁

Carlos Alcaraz wins his first @ROLEXMCMASTERS title!

📷: @carlosalcaraz | #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/1O04jCCcic
— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) April 13, 2025

The 2025 season has been an inconsistent one for Khachanov, marked by frequent early exits. The lone exception came in Barcelona, where he made a promising semifinal run before being stopped by Holger Rune. Outside of that, the Russian has struggled to advance beyond the round of 16 in most events. Most recently, he bowed out of the Madrid Open in a hard-fought three-set loss to Tommy Paul.

Considering the modest results, Khachanov’s stats reflect a competitive edge. He has fired 104 aces and maintained a solid 73% win rate on first serve. However, his conversion rate on breakpoints, just 36% from 153 opportunities, and a low 37% win rate on return points reveal his struggles in critical moments. Had he capitalized more consistently in those key situations, the narrative around his season could look very different.

Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz holds a commanding 4-0 lead in his head-to-head against Karen Khachanov, and it hasn’t even been close. The Spaniard has won all four matches in straight sets, asserting his dominance every time they’ve stepped on court.

Their rivalry began in the fourth round of the 2022 French Open, where Alcaraz breezed past Khachanov without dropping a set. Later that year in Hamburg, he doubled down, this time dishing out a bagel in the opening set before closing it out emphatically. The pattern continued in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Madrid Open and the 2024 Beijing Open, with Alcaraz once again cruising past the Russian in straight sets.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024	Beijing	Quarterfinal	Carlos Alcaraz	7-5, 6-2
2023	Madrid	Quarterfinal	Carlos Alcaraz	6-4, 7-5
2022	Hamburg	Quarterfinal	Carlos Alcaraz	6-0, 6-2
2022	Roland Garros	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	6-1, 6-4, 6-4

As they prepare for a potential fifth clash at the Italian Open, the question looms large: can Khachanov finally flip the script, or will Alcaraz continue to run the show? The fans seem to have made their pick already, but in tennis, surprises are always just a rally away.

Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz Comparison

Karen Khachanov	Category	Carlos Alcaraz
24	Ranking	3
290-211	Career W-L	233-61
9-10	YTD W-L	24-5
7	Career Titles	18
0	Grand Slams	4
0	YTD Titles	2

Karen Khachanov vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Alcaraz enters with a perfect 4-0 record against Karen Khachanov and has looked sharp throughout the clay season. While Khachanov has the weapons to challenge, especially if his serve clicks, Alcaraz’s all-court game and mental edge in big moments give him the upper hand.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets

Also Read: Is Iga Swiatek’s Decline in Form a Concern for Her 2025 French Open Campaign?