Can Pegula earn her spot in the knockouts?
With a spot in the knockout rounds on the line, No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula will battle two-time Grand Slam finalist Jasmine Paolini in the WTA Finals 2025 Group Stage on Thursday. The Italian is competing in the singles and doubles draw this week, and hasn’t looked the part thus far. However, she has an opportunity to spoil Pegula’s party in Riyadh. With the help of BetMGM, we look to give you the most accurate stats and odds for this marquee contest.
Jessica Pegula made an impressive start to her WTA Finals campaign, beating Coco Gauff in three hard-fought sets to notch important points on the board. Despite putting up a valiant fight, the World No. 5 failed to cross the finish line against Aryna Sabalenka on Tuesday. Pegula’s season got off to a flyer – with the 31-year-old winning two titles and runner-up trophies by April. She also won the Bad Homburg championship, before making another US Open semifinal. Prior to the season-ending championships, Pegula impressed one and all on Chinese soil.
Jasmine Paolini is arguably the best player in the world when it comes to singles and doubles proficiency. Currently ranked No. 8 in singles and No. 3 in doubles, the Italian fighter has won a solitary title in 2025 – in Rome. After reaching semifinals in Miami, Stuttgart and Bad Homburg, she turned it up a notch and finished as the runner-up in Cincinnati. Paolini’s back-to-back semifinal appearances at Wuhan and Ningbo brought her to Riyadh with momentum. Unfortunately, the 29-year-old has lost in straight sets to Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff so far.
Jessica Pegula has an unbeaten record of 5-0 in the head-to-head against Jasmine Paolini. Additionally, the Italian is yet to win a set against her American counterpart.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2023 Montreal | Round of 16 | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2022 Charleston | Round of 32 | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2021 Indian Wells | Round of 32 | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2018 Houston | Round of 32 | Jessica Pegula | 7-6(8) 6-2 |
| 2016 Orlando | Quarterfinal | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 6-3 |
| Jessica Pegula | Category | Jasmine Paolini |
| 5 | Current Ranking | 8 |
| 485-268 | Career W-L Record | 429-290 |
| 51-20 | YTD W-L Record | 43-20 |
| 9 | Career Titles | 3 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Playing three singles and three doubles matches over less than a week was never going to be easy. Unfortunately, there could be more pain inflicted on Paolini in this deciding Group Stage encounter. Pegula has a strong record against counter-punch specialists, and enjoys having time on the ball. The current form of Paolini means that she has no real weapons to trouble the American. Owing to her opponent’s deep court position, expect a lot of forward movement and net play from Pegula.
Prediction: Jessica Pegula in straight sets.
Pegula (7/20) is an outright favorite against the underdog Paolini (11/5) in the WTA Finals 2025 Group Stage. According to the implied probability on the money line, the American has an 85% chance of advancing to the semifinals. Given below are the most probable odds for this match-up (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)
