Winner to face Jovic or Siniakova in the QFs.
World No. 6 Jessica Pegula and World No. 11 Ekaterina Alexandrova will lock horns in a battle of the powerhouse baseliners on Thursday. This Round of 16 clash at the 2025 WTA Wuhan Open will determine who secures one of the quarterfinal spots in the top half of the draw. The winner of this encounter will advance to face either Iva Jovic or Katerina Siniakova in the last eight. Follow BetMGM to get all the important betting odds throughout the tennis season.
Jessica Pegula survived a major scare against Hailey Baptiste to enter the pre-quarterfinals. The American earned a hard-fought 6-4 4-6 7-6(6) win to improve her 2025 record to 47-18. The 31-year-old has won three titles this year – including the ATX Open in Austin, Charleston Open and Bad Homburg Open. Having reached her maiden Grand Slam final at the 2024 US Open, Pegula followed it up with a semifinal finish this time around. The sixth seed will be hoping for a strong finish to her season in order to confirm a Top-5 WTA ranking.
Ekaterina Alexandrova managed to win just one match in her first three tournaments of the calendar. Shifting her focus to the Linz Open in Austria, this powerful baseliner beat top seed Karolina Muchova and fifth seed Dayana Yastremska en route to her one and only championship run. The 30-year-old also reached two other finals (Monterrey, Seoul) and four semifinals (Doha, Charleston, Stuttgart, ‘s-Hertogenbosch). The Russian sensation has a success rate of 67% this season, as well as over 60% break points saved.
Ekaterina Alexandrova leads the head-to-head against Jessica Pegula by 3-2. Three out of these five matches have been contested in 2025. Having already faced off thrice on clay, the Wuhan Open Round of 16 will be this duo’s third meeting on hard courts.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Stuttgart | Quarterfinal | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 6-0 6-4 |
| 2025 Charleston | Semifinal | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 2-6 7-5 |
| 2025 Doha | Quarterfinal | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 4-6 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024 Miami | Quarterfinal | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 3-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021 Rome | Round of 16 | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 6-4 |
| Jessica Pegula | Category | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
| 6 | Current Ranking | 11 |
| 481-266 | Career W-L Record | 462-284 |
| 47-18 | YTD W-L Record | 43-21 |
| 9 | Career Titles | 5 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
In spite of the fact that Pegula has played one match less, she spent a considerable amount of time and energy on court against Baptiste. On the other hand, Alexandrova’s two wins so far have been relatively straightforward. Additionally, the Russian is looking extremely sharp this week, and has the perfect game to counter Pegula’s attacking threat. Whenever these two players come face to face, there is always a slugfest of baseline exchanges. The player with the higher first serve percentage is likely to race past the finish line.
Prediction: Ekaterina Alexandrova in straight sets.
Pegula (17/20) has a very slight edge over Alexandrova (19/20) in terms of the pre-match odds market. The current implied probability on the money line shows a partial 54-46% tilt in favor of the higher ranked American. There is a high chance of this encounter going into a deciding set. Take a look at the odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Susan Mullane, Imagn Images)
