Both players are fighting for a spot in the 2025 WTA Finals.
No. 2 seed Jasmine Paolini and No. 3 seed Elena Rybakina will meet in the semifinals of the 2025 WTA Ningbo Open. Both players came through contrasting battles in the quarterfinal stage, confirming a blockbuster showdown to reach Sunday’s showpiece event. The winner of this match-up will face either Ekaterina Alexandrova or Diana Shnaider in the final. We are going to give you an exclusive preview and statistical analysis for this encounter today. Later, BetMGM will provide us with the accurate betting odds.
After receiving a bye in Round-1, Jasmine Paolini eased past Veronika Kudermetova in straight sets to get her campaign off the mark in Ningbo. In the quarterfinals, the World No. 8 was given a mighty scare by Tokyo Olympics gold medalist Belinda Bencic. After dropping the first set, Paolini pulled back for a 5-7 7-5 6-3 win. The 29-year-old has already won the Italian Open crown in mid 2025, and completed a runner-up finish in Cincinnati. Her impressive 43-17 record ranks among some of the WTA’s elite superstars this year.
Former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina opened her account against Dayana Yastremska. While the Ukrainian has wins over the likes of Coco Gauff and Emma Navarro this year, she couldn’t get over the line against the World No. 9. The Kazakh powerhouse then ran riot against Ajla Tomljanovic of Australia in the last eight. She served seven aces and conceded just one break point en route to a statement 6-2 6-0 success. Apart from her title charge at the Strasbourg International, Rybakina is yet to make her presence felt like she normally does on tour.
Jasmine Paolini has a 3-2 record against Elena Rybakina. The Italian has won their two most recent encounters – both of which took place in 2024. On hard courts, Paolini is undefeated against Rybakina.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 WTA Finals | Round Robin | Jasmine Paolini | 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024 Roland Garros | Quarterfinal | Jasmine Paolini | 6-2 4-6 6-4 |
| 2024 Stuttgart | Quarterfinal | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 5-7 6-3 |
| 2023 Cincinnati | Round of 16 | Jasmine Paolini | 4-6 5-2 RET. |
| 2023 Rome | Round of 64 | Elena Rybakina | 7-6(4) 6-1 |
| Jasmine Paolini | Category | Elena Rybakina |
| 8 | Current Ranking | 9 |
| 429-287 | Career W-L Record | 380-162 |
| 43-17 | YTD W-L Record | 49-19 |
| 3 | Career Titles | 9 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 1 |
Rybakina’s serve has been on fire this week. If she can land a high percentage of first serves against Paolini, the match will automatically slip away from the No. 2 seed’s grasp. When it comes to baseline duels, the Italian adopts a deep court position and counters pace extremely well. Her court coverage skills mean that if Rybakina leaves the court open but fails to hit a clean winner, there is no way back. However, we are predicting the Kazakh’s serve to be the difference maker.
Prediction: Elena Rybakina in three sets.
Elena Rybakina (12/25) has dominant pre-match odds against Jasmine Paolini (17/10) in the WTA Ningbo Open 2025 semifinal. According to the implied probability on the money line, the former World No. 3 has a 76% chance of making it to the final. Take a look at the odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Susan Mullane, Imagn Images)
