Brazil continue their preparations for the 2026 World Cup with an international friendly against Japan at the Ajinomoto Stadium on Tuesday. Both sides have already secured their places at next year’s finals and are using this encounter to fine-tune their squads.
Japan became the first team to qualify for the World Cup through the Asian qualifiers after defeating Bahrain 2-0 in March, while Brazil sealed their spot following a narrow 1-0 win over Paraguay in June’s CONMEBOL qualifiers.
Japan head into this clash following a thrilling 2-2 draw with Paraguay on Friday, secured by Ayase Ueda’s dramatic stoppage-time equaliser. Despite a recent dip in defensive solidity—conceding four goals in two matches—the Samurai Blue remain formidable at home, unbeaten in 20 matches.
Hajime Moriyasu is likely to retain much of the same lineup, with Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Junnosuke Suzuki, and Ayumu Seko expected to form a back three. Midfielders Ao Tanaka and Kaishu Sano should anchor the center, while Takumi Minamino and Koki Ogawa offer creativity and finishing in the final third.
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Brazil enter the fixture in high spirits after thrashing South Korea 5-0, marking their third win in four games under Carlo Ancelotti. The Selecao have impressed defensively, keeping four clean sheets in five outings, though their away form remains inconsistent. Ancelotti may rotate slightly, with Matheus Cunha possibly dropping deeper to support Richarlison in attack.
Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro are set to control midfield, while Arsenal’s Gabriel Magalhães will likely partner Éder Militão at the back. Brazil boast an unbeaten record against Japan since 2006, winning six straight meetings and aiming to extend that streak in Tokyo.
With Brazil favoured but Japan expected to mount a solid defence, the under 3.5 goals line at -184 is plausible. The hosts have played tightly in recent friendlies and conceded just three times in 10 qualifying matches. Brazil, though capable of heavy victories (as they did with a 5–0 win over South Korea), have often kept things measured in away fixtures, especially when facing a disciplined opponent. Expect a cautious contest with few scoring bursts.
Vinícius Junior to score at any time at +110 given his regular role in Brazil’s attacking front seems plausible. Brazil’s firepower often revolves around wide threats, and Vinícius’ ability to be dangerous in transitions gives him a solid chance. In a match likely defined by few clear opportunities, backing a proven forward like him offers value.
A more balanced wager is Richarlison at evens to score or assist. Richarlison is an important forward option and Brazil may rotate their attacking roles. His involvement in goals is established, and with midfielders such as Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro supplying decent support, Richarlison has a realistic path to either scoring or setting up a goal. Especially in an expectedly tight game.
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Japan’s home unbeaten streak (extended to 20 matches) and their strong qualifying record suggest they will resist, not submit quietly. Still, Brazil’s winning mentality and recent form of three wins in four matches, should be enough to squeeze past.
Given historical dominance and superior quality, a 2-1 win for Brazil seems the likeliest outcome. With under 3.5 goals expected, one goal apiece from Vinicius or Richarlison and a tight defensive showing from both sides aligns with a low-scoring but decisive result.
The Japan vs Brazil international friendlies clash is on October 14, 2025, at the Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu, Japan.
Brazil are favorites to win with a moneyline at -250, to draw at +360 and for Japan to win at +500.
Rodrygo to score anytime: +160
Richarlison to assist anytime: +300
Vinicius Junior to either score or assist: -167
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