Clash of momentum and home spirit in Rome
Alex de Minaur begins his Italian Open campaign against wild card Luca Nardi in the second round, following a first-round bye. Nardi, playing on home soil, advanced after a confident straight-sets win over fellow Italian Fabio Cobolli.
The Aussie, ranked world No. 8, has been one of the more consistent performers this season. He started strong with a quarterfinal showing at the Australian Open, followed by a runner-up finish in Rotterdam, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. He made another quarterfinal run in Qatar before a tight three-set loss to Andrey Rublev.
Although he didn’t progress past the Round of 16 in Dubai, Indian Wells, or Miami, he found his rhythm again with a semifinal in Monte Carlo and a quarterfinal in Barcelona. His most recent outing saw him fall to Lorenzo Musetti in the Round of 16 in Madrid.
Nardi, on the other hand, is still looking for a breakthrough at the top level. Apart from a quarterfinal appearance in Dubai, most of his main-draw outings have ended early. However, his Challenger Tour results show glimpses of form. He reached the final at Challenger Koblenz, narrowly losing to Ugo Blanchet, and recently made the quarterfinals in Estoril before falling to Alex Michelsen in straight sets.
Alex de Minaur and Luca Nardi will be meeting for the first time at the Italian Open and thus have no head-to-head yet.
| Alex de Minaur | Category | Luca Nardi |
| 8 | Ranking | 95 |
| 273-164 | Career W-L | 11-31 |
| 24-9 | YTD W-L | 4-7 |
| 9 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
De Minaur clearly holds the edge with his top-10 consistency and deeper runs throughout the season. However, Nardi, buoyed by the home crowd and with nothing to lose, could bring the kind of fearless tennis that disrupts rhythm. If the Aussie isn’t sharp from the start, this could get trickier than expected.
Prediction: Alex de Minaur in straight sets.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Alex de Minaur: 1/10
Luca Nardi: 6/1
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