On Friday, 05/04, the Houston Rockets (3-3) will host the Golden State Warriors (3-3) in Game 7 of the NBA Playoffs’ First Round. The Rockets had a gritty 8-point win (115-107) in Game 6 to level the series. Which team will hold its nerve as the series goes to its winner-takes-it-all scenario? Go through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Are the Warriors shaken after another Rockets masterclass?
Stephen Curry knows a thing or two about blowing a 3-1 lead. He finds his Dubs in a similar territory again. His team’s last two performances will surely lead to many doubts. It is concerning when the opposition, without its leading scorer(Jalen Green), underperforms almost every game.
Like Game 5, the Warriors had no answer for Fred VanVleet. The 2019 champion exploded for 29 points and nailed 6 triples in Game 6. It was his third straight performance with 25 points or more.
It has been the biggest difference maker in the series. To add to the Warriors’ hurt, Steven Adams had 17 points off the bench in Game 6. It indicates the Rockets’ depth, compared to the Dubs, who are heavily reliant upon Curry and Jimmy Butler.
Coach Steve Kerr made an interesting change in Game 6. He started Gary Payton II instead of Brandin Podziemski, who has been the designated starter in the second half of the season. GP-III had a +/- of -12 while Podz had a -3.
Four of the five starters shot 3/18 from the three-point line, and three of these players had minimal impact from the two-point territory, too. A recipe for disaster.
Anyway, trends have shifted towards the Rockets. The Warriors should have closed out the series in Game 6, but now they are in a dangerous place. Will Butler and Curry be able to fend off the deep Houston team by using their veteran experience? Tough to say so.
Rockets Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Fred Van Vleet | SG: Jalen Green | SF: Dillon brooks | PF: Amen Thompson | C: Alperen Sengun
Key bench players: SF: Tari Eason, PF: Jabari Smith Jr., C: Steven Adams
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
Warriors Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Stephen Curry | SG: Brandin Podziemski | SG/SF: Moses Moody | SF: Jonathan Kuminga | PF/C: Draymond Green
Key bench players: SG: Buddy Hield, PG: Gary Payton II, SF: Jonathan Kuminga, C: Quinten Post
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report.
The series started with low-scoring contests. The first three games were 203 points or under. Meanwhile, the last three games have yielded 215 or more. Thus, the bookmakers’ projections have been all over the place in the series.
The Rockets’ series high has been 131 while the Warriors’ season high has been 116. But which way will the pendulum swing scoring-wise in the deciding game? I believe it will be in 210s, which is way over the bookmakers’ expectations.
Stephen Curry to put up over 26.5 points: Curry jacked 23 shots in Game 6 as he didn’t receive enough help on the scoring front from the backcourt. He had 29 points, but it wasn’t always pretty against the Rockets’ defense, which has held him to 20 or below in three games.
However, I see him coming up with his best here.
Fred Van Vleet over 17.5 points: FDV is averaging 26.7 PPG in the last three games after a slow 11.3 PPG start in the three games before that. I see him capitalizing on his hot rhythm and figure in the 18-21 range.
Jimmy Butler to score over 23.5 points: Butler had 27 in the last game and has scored 25 or more in three of the four games(excluding Game 2 when he got injured early). He has been in impeccable form and will be hungry to come on top in a Game 7 scenario.
Main pick: Fred Van Vleet O 17.5 points for -105 at BetMGM
The Rockets will be the favorites here, considering how well they have played in the last two games. They are undoubtedly the team with the most depth, and their performances in the first half of the series were appalling. Houston has the momentum and the hot hand of FDV.
Meanwhile, the Dubs will need to rely heavily upon just two players. Both Curry and JB will need to play out of their skins, and I believe they will. I see the Dubs proving the bookmakers wrong here, who had favored them in Game 6.
Safe Spread Pick: Warriors -1.5 for +140 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
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