Can Rune put an end to the qualifier’s dream week?
10th seed Holger Rune faces an uphill battle against red hot qualifier Valentin Vacherot in the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters quarterfinals. The Monegasque breakout star has picked up six wins over the past ten days, and reached his maiden Masters-1000 quarterfinal in the process. However, Rune will be an upgrade on all the challenges thrown at him thus far. Can the World No. 204 keep his mind-boggling run going? BetMGM will help us with the predictions and betting odds for this highly anticipated last eight duel.
Among players born after 2000, Holger Rune (11) trails only Jannik Sinner (17) and Carlos Alcaraz (18) in terms of most Masters-1000 quarterfinals reached. The 22-year-old has found a brilliant rhythm this week – beating quality opposition such as Ugo Humbert and Mpetshi Perricard along the way. Rune is currently ranked No. 11 in the world, and has a win-loss record of 34-20 in 2025. His highlights of the season came in Barcelona where he was the champion, and Indian Wells where he finished as the runner-up. The Dane has won 72% first serve points and 54% second serve points on hard courts this year.
Coming into this tournament, Valentin Vacherot had merely six tour-level wins throughout the ongoing campaign. His career record of 12-9 will witness a vast improvement courtesy his strong outing in Shanghai. After upsetting Nishesh Basavareddy in the qualifiers, the 26-year-old proceeded to overpower higher ranked opponents like Alexander Bublik, Tomas Machac and Tallon Griekspoor. He is now the lowest ranked quarterfinalist in the history of the Shanghai Masters. Having made his Grand Slam main draw debut at Roland Garros 2024, Vacherot has upgraded by accumulating 48% total points won in 2025 – as opposed to 45% last year.
There is no current head-to-head record between Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot. The quarterfinal meeting at the 2025 Shanghai Masters will be their first encounter on the ATP circuit.
| Holger Rune | Category | Valentin Vacherot |
| 11 | Current Ranking | 204 |
| 173-105 | Career W-L Record | 16-9 |
| 34-20 | YTD W-L Record | 10-2 |
| 5 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Rune is considerably superior in terms of experience on the big stage, in comparison with Vacherot. The Danish young gun also has better numbers on serve as well as return this year. However, he will need to play first strike tennis to beat the 26-year-old. There is no doubt that Vacherot will come out with a ‘nothing to lose’ attitude, and focus on being flawless on his own serve to begin with. The crowd could also play a key role in backing the lower ranked player to rise to the occasion. We believe this encounter is going to be a lot closer than many people assume.
Prediction: Holger Rune in three sets.
Ahead of the Rolex Shanghai Masters 2025 quarterfinals, Holger Rune (8/25) is dominating the odds market over Valentin Vacherot (49/20). According to the implied probability on the money line, the Danish prodigy has an 89% chance of progressing to the semifinal stage. Given below are the odds for the match result and in-match specifics (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Susan Mullane, Imagn Images)
