On Monday, 03/17, the Golden State Warriors (39-28) will host the Denver Nuggets (43-25) in a Western Conference Regular-Season match-up. The Warriors have sprung to sixth in the West, while the Nuggets are barely holding on to the third spot. Can the Dubs keep their winning chain intact? Read about the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Warriors: Jimmy Butler III has transformed into a big threat
The Golden State Warriors will come into this match-up after a gutsy three-point win against the New York Knicks behind a 27-point outing by Stephen Curry. It was their seventh win in a row, and they are now 14-1 with Jimmy Butler III. JB III has upgraded the ubs on both ends as his hard-nosed defense, leadership, and unselfish play have elevated Stephen Curry’s level, too. The Dubs will have two tough games in a row against the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks, but they have one of the easiest five-game slates after that. Thus, the Dubs have a chance to enter the top-four rankings if they keep their current rhythm intact.
Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Stephen Curry | SG: Moses Moody | SF: Jimmy Butler III | SF: Gui Santos | PF/C: Draymond Green
Key Injuries/Updates: Brandin Podziemski is OUT for he game but will potentially be back against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Nuggets: Loaded offense, terrible defense
The Denver Nuggets will come into this affair after a terrible 3-point loss against the league’s worst Washington Wizards despite a 40-point effort by Nikola Jokic. They are now 6-6 after a strong 17-4 period, missing a golden opportunity to seal the second spot in the West. During their disappointing 12-game stretch, they hoarded 119.3 points per game(9th), but their defense has been in freefall, giving up 121.4 PPG9(4th worst). The shootout style of basketball was a huge reason for the loss against the Wizards and a poor performance against the short-handed Lakers. The team needs to fix its defensive woes, or they will pick bad habits, hurting their postseason chances.
Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jamal Murray | SG: Christian Braun | SF: Michael Porter Jr. | PF: Aaron Gordon | C: Nikola Jokic
Key Injuries/Updates: Julian Strwather can be OUT till the end of March. The status of Aaron Gordon is UNCLEAR.
The Warriors have been superb on the defensive end and have conceded just 107.5 PPG(2nd) in the last 15 games. These defensive comparisons are in contrast to the Nuggets’ lax defense. Thus, Denver may force another shootout scenario to negate a tough low-scoring battle. This approach can backfire because Curry has the hot hand right now, while Butler has given the team terrific offensive flexibility. Overall, I see a shoot-out type of game, with the total going past 235. My original projections align with the bookmakers, making for an interesting Over/Under predictions here.
Projected Predictions:
Stephen Curry to score over 29.5 points: The Warriors’ talisman has put up 26.6 PPG in January and has been sizzling since January. I expect him to erupt for a 30+ points night here.
Jimmy Butler to dish over 7.5 assists: JB III has done a terrific job of serving the rock to his teammates. He has tallied 7 assists per game in the last five games, and I expect him to be in the 8-10 range here.
Nikola Jokic to grab over 14.5 rebounds: The Nuggets center has grabbed 13.6 rebounds per game in March, cleaning up 13 or more rebounds in six games thus far this month. I expect him to take advantage of the Warriors’ undersized lineup and hoard 15-18 rebounds.
Christian Braun to score over 15.5 points: The off-guard has scored 16.8 PPG in March but has scored fewer points in three of the last four games. However, I expect him to be in the 16-19 points range.
The Warriors have been in their best form these days, whereas the Nuggets have been in a familiar slump. However, you never know when Denver has a special performance up their sleeve, as shown by their win against Western Conference leaders OKC Thunder just a few days ago. However, I doubt the Dubs’ win machine will let this game slip, and I see them taking the Nuggets to cleaners in the second half.
Safe Spread Pick: Warriors -7.5 for +125 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Ross Cameron- Imagn Images
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