Winner to face Sinner or Zverev in the final.
Six years after their maiden Masters-1000 meeting, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Bublik will square off in the semifinal of the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters. Both players are seeking a spot in the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals, and will go all guns blazing to earn bragging rights over the other. The winner of this match will face either Jannik Sinner/Ben Shelton or Alexander Zverev/Daniil Medvedev in the grand final. With the help of BetMGM, we look to give you the most accurate outcomes for this contest.
Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Bublik are among the crème de la crème of the ATP superstars to have won three or more titles in 2025. The World No. 10 Canadian won in Adelaide and Montpellier, before another success in Brussels marked one of his best seasons. Meanwhile, Bublik underwent a change of mentality and approach after Roland Garros. He reached his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal in Paris, and backed it up with championship runs at Halle, Gstaad, Kitzbuhel and Hangzhou.
In addition to his titles, Auger-Aliassime also reached six semifinals (including Paris Bercy) and a final. On the other hand, Bublik’s semifinal appearance at the French capital has given him a win-loss record of 37-20 this year. Having beaten the likes of Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur this week, Top-10 is on the cards for the World No. 16. But with Auger-Aliassime winning 86% service games on this surface in 2025, it is hard to predict which of these two titans will advance to Sunday’s summit clash.
Auger-Aliassime has a head-to-head record of 3-2 against Bublik so far. This includes one prior meeting in 2025 – at the Dubai Duty Free Championships.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Dubai | Round of 32 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 7-6(7) 6-7(4) 6-3 |
| 2024 Montpellier | Semifinal | Alexander Bublik | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022 Basel | Quarterfinal | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2020 Hamburg | Round of 16 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019 Shanghai | Round of 64 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 7-6(5) 4-0 RET. |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | Category | Alexander Bublik |
| 10 | Current Ranking | 16 |
| 262-168 | Career W-L Record | 189-170 |
| 47-21 | YTD W-L Record | 37-20 |
| 8 | Career Titles | 8 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 4 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Bublik’s success rate on first serve has been well over 75% throughout the tournament. The Kazakh powerhouse has chosen the right moments to pounce on his opponent. Against Auger-Aliassime, he will certainly look to test the Canadian on his exploitable defensive end, before bringing him forward with some drop shots. If FAA can maintain his composure and remain patient in the baseline exchanges, he has all the weapons to advance into the final. However, we sense that the Bublik express will keep going.
Prediction: Alexander Bublik in three sets.
Although the odds market is evenly split for this ATP Paris Masters 2025 semifinal, Bublik (17/20) holds a partial advantage over Auger-Aliassime (19/20). According to the implied probability on the money line, the current split is around 58-42%. Given below are the list of odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Andy Abeyta, Imagn Images)
