Italy will look to maintain their push for a direct place at the 2026 World Cup when they face Estonia in Tallinn on Saturday night. The Azzurri are in strong form under new coach Gennaro Gattuso, who guided them to back-to-back wins in September.
Their previous meeting ended in a dominant 5-0 victory for Italy, and they enter this clash determined to close the gap on Group I leaders Norway. Estonia, meanwhile, are seeking redemption after a poor start to qualifying that has left them struggling near the bottom of the table.
Estonia sit second from bottom in Group I, with only three points from five games. Coach Jürgen Henn’s side have struggled in attack, going over 300 minutes without scoring. Captain Karol Mets returns from injury to strengthen the back line.
Meanwhile, forward Karel Mustmaa earns his first senior call-up. The absence of suspended striker Henri Anier is a significant blow, leaving Rauno Sappinen to lead the attack. Arsenal’s Karl Hein is set to start in goal, supported by defender Maksim Paskotsi of PAOK.
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Gattuso is expected to retain a four-man defensive setup against modest opposition. Forwards Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean, who combined for three goals in the reverse fixture, could again start together. Wingers Matteo Politano and Mattia Zaccagni are out injured.
Thus, paving the way for Giacomo Raspadori, Riccardo Orsolini, or Nicolo Cambiaghi to feature. Midfielder Bryan Cristante returns after a strong run of club form, while Fiorentina youngster Hans Nicolussi Caviglia could make his debut. With morale high after thrilling wins over Estonia and Israel, Italy will look to extend their resurgence.
It is expected that Italy will dominate offensively and break through Estonia’s fragile defence repeatedly. Hence, the over 3.5 goals at -120 line seems justified. Under new boss Gennaro Gattuso, the Azzurri dismantled Estonia 5–0 in their recent meeting, and followed that up with a frenetic 5–4 win in Hungary.
They showed both attacking potency and defensive risk. Estonia, by contrast, have gone more than 300 minutes without scoring and have conceded heavy losses to higher-ranked teams. The mismatch in form and quality supports a high-scoring result in favour of Italy.
Backing Mateo Retegui to score anytime at -220 is a strong play given his recent form and positional role. In the reverse fixture, he was part of Italy’s multi-goal surge, and his prolific scoring at club level underlines his finishing ability. He set a single–season scoring record for Atalanta. So Retegui’s sharp movements between defenders and constant threat in the box make him a natural pick to find the net. With Italy likely to pressure relentlessly, he stands a good chance to get in on the act.
The market pricing Moise Kean to score or assist at –320 reflects his dual threat as a finisher and creator. Paired with Retegui in the earlier encounter, Kean contributed significantly, combining with him for three goals between them. He remains influential in transition play and poised to exploit space behind Estonia’s defence. His ability to drift into pockets and tee up teammates or end moves himself makes this a compelling market value bet under Gattuso’s attacking system.
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Estimating a 4–0 win for Italy seems plausible, given their recent dominance over Estonia and capacity to explode into multi-goal games. The earlier 5–0 win signals how ruthlessly Italy can exploit inferior opponents, while Estonia’s scoring drought and defensive fragility render them vulnerable.
With both Retegui and Kean in form, Italy should have the firepower to register multiple goals, and Estonia may struggle to muster any meaningful threat. Expect a controlled, attacking performance from the visitors, with a clean sheet keeping the margin clear.
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