The Miami Heat (22–20) travel to Chase Center to face the Golden State Warriors (24–19) on Monday, January 19, 2026. Tip‑off is set for 10 p.m. ET, with coverage on FDSSUN and NBCS‑BA. Golden State enters as a 6‑point favorite, while the total is set at 238.5.
Miami is looking to snap a three‑game road losing streak, while Golden State has won three straight as favorites. The Heat won the previous head‑to‑head this season, but the Warriors have momentum and home‑court advantage.
Golden State has been favored by 6 or more points 20 times this season, covering in 12 of those contests. While they are strong at home (15–4 as moneyline favorites), Miami has proven resilient as underdogs, posting a 7–3–1 ATS record when catching 6+ points.
The Heat average 119.5 points per game, ranking fifth in the league, and they have gone 20–7 ATS when scoring more than 113.3 points, the exact average Golden State allows. Norman Powell’s scoring and Bam Adebayo’s rebounding give Miami reliable production, while Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. provide secondary offense.
Golden State’s defense is solid, but the Heat’s offensive efficiency (46.7% shooting) matches well against the Warriors’ defensive metrics. With Tyler Herro sidelined, Powell and Adebayo will shoulder more of the scoring load, and Miami’s ability to keep games close makes them a strong play to cover the spread.
This parlay leans on both teams’ stars producing. Powell has averaged 23.8 points per game and should see increased usage with Herro out. Curry remains Golden State’s offensive engine, averaging 27.6 points. If both stars hit their marks, Miami is well‑positioned to cover the spread, making this a correlated and safer option.
This longshot assumes Golden State wins outright, but Miami’s frontcourt contributes heavily. Adebayo averages 9.6 rebounds and should dominate the glass against Golden State’s smaller lineups. Jaquez Jr. has shown confidence from deep, and if he connects on multiple threes, the parlay has strong upside.
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Trends to Know For Heat vs Warriors
Warriors are 7–3 in their last 10 games.
Heat are 6–4 ATS in their last 10.
Golden State is 12–7–1 ATS when favored by 6+.
Miami is 7–3–1 ATS as underdogs of 6+.
Warriors games have gone over in 24 of 42.
Heat games have gone over in 21 of 42.
Golden State is 15–4 as home moneyline favorites.
Miami has won 11 of 24 games as underdogs.
Latest Injuries & NBA Injury Report
Team
Player
Status
Injury
Warriors
Seth Curry
Out
Back
Warriors
Gui Santos
Day‑To‑Day
Ankle
Warriors
Jimmy Butler
Day‑To‑Day
Personal
Heat
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Probable
Knee
Heat
Tyler Herro
Out
Toe
Heat
Davion Mitchell
Probable
Shoulder
What time is Heat vs Warriors tonight?
10 p.m. ET, Monday, January 19, 2026.
Where is the game being played?
Chase Center, San Francisco, California.
How can I watch Heat vs Warriors?
Broadcast on FDSSUN and NBCS‑BA, streaming via NBA League Pass.
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