Power-heavy Rybakina meets problem-solving Pegula in high-stakes Riyadh semifinal clash
World No. 5 Jessica Pegula will meet World No. 6 Elena Rybakina in the semifinals of the WTA Finals 2025. Pegula has gone 2-1, defeating Jasmine Paolini and Coco Gauff before losing to Aryna Sabalenka. Rybakina has been the standout of the group stage with a perfect 3-0 record, earning wins over Iga Swiatek, Amanda Anisimova, and Madison Keys.
Rybakina has produced a powerful yet uneven year. She won titles in Strasbourg, where she defeated Liudmila Samsonova in three sets, and in Ningbo with a victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova. She also made semifinal finishes in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and a quarterfinal in Doha before experiencing a mid-season dip. Her other deep runs include quarterfinals in London, Berlin, and Wuhan and semifinals in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati, and Tokyo. Statistically, she remains one of the tour’s biggest hitters. She has fired 468 aces in 71 matches, won 74.4% of first-serve points, claimed 43.1% of return points, and converted 42.2% of break points.
Three wins. No losses. One dropped set. Elena Rybakina marches into the semi-finals at the WTA Finals! 👏 pic.twitter.com/PDWoNQAyxw
— TNT Sports (@tntsports) November 5, 2025
Pegula has quietly built another strong season. The American finished runner-up in Adelaide to Madison Keys, in Miami to Sabalenka, and in Wuhan to Gauff. She reached six finals and lifted trophies in Austin, Charleston, and Bad Homburg. Also, semifinal runs in Wuhan and the US Open, along with a quarterfinal in Doha, strengthened her campaign. However, inconsistency has appeared at times, highlighted by a fourth-round loss at Roland Garros to wildcard Lois Boisson. Pegula’s numbers remain steady with 182 aces in 70 matches, a 67.6% first-serve win rate, and a 45.5% break points
Jessica Pegula easily defeats Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-3 to qualify for the WTA Finals semifinals.
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) November 6, 2025
With a 58% games won, there is no score on the Sabalenka-Gauff match that can eliminate her.
She will finish 1st or 2nd, dependent on the next match. pic.twitter.com/W1hEjPWkHq
Jessica Pegula leads Elena Rybakina 3-1 in their head-to-head. Their first meeting came in Miami in 2022, where Pegula won in straight sets, and she backed it up later that season in Guadalajara with a comeback victory. Rybakina’s lone win in the rivalry came at the 2023 Miami Open, but Pegula responded that same year at the WTA Finals, extending her lead.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | WTA Finals | Round 1 | Jessica Pegula | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 2023 | Miami | Semifinals | Elena Rybakina | 7-6(3), 6-4 |
| 2022 | Guadalajara | Round of 32 | Jessica Pegula | 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(8) |
| 2022 | Miami | Round of 32 | Jessica Pegula | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Elena Rybakina | Category | Jessica Pegula |
| 6 | Current Ranking | 5 |
| 384-162 | Career W-L | 484-267 |
| 53-19 | YTD W-L | 50-19 |
| 10 | Career Titles | 9 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 3 |
Rybakina has the bigger ceiling and enters in better form, but Pegula’s consistency and problem-solving have historically given her the edge. Plus, Pegula owns the lead in their head-to-head too. But if Rybakina maintains her form, then she should prevail.
WTA Finals semifinals
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) November 6, 2025
[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [4] Amanda Anisimova
[6] Elena Rybakina vs. [5] Jessica Pegula
Prediction: Elena Rybakina in straight sets
Rybakina at -184 enters as the favorite, supported by her heavier serve, higher ace count, and stronger week-to-week dominance. Pegula at +155 offers value, but the odds reflect Rybakina’s firepower and recent momentum, making her the statistical pick.
Here are the betting odds according to FanDuel:
Elena Rybakina: -184
Jessica Pegula: +155
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via FanDuel):
Set 1 Winner Rybakina: -144
Set 1 Winner Pegula: +118
Total Games 21.5 Over: -134
Total Games 21.5 Under: +100
Total Sets 2.5 Over: +136
Total Sets 2.5 Under: -182
(According to FanDuel: FanDuel offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!)
Mandatory Image Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
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mma I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.
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