The NFL Conference Championship round is here, and in this article, we will take a look at the best picks and player props for the Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots game.
The Broncos and the Patriots will square off in the AFC Championship game in Denver with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance. The winner of this game will not only be the best team in the AFC, but will also get a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a couple weeks time.
Broncos vs Patriots Picks & Predictions
Expert Pick: Patriots cover -4.5 point spread: (-108)
Our choice for the best bet is the Patriots to cover the -4.5 point spreadwith (-108)odds, as per FanDuel.
For our expert pick, we are taking the Patriots to not only win the game but also cover the spread. The Patriots were favored by a touchdown when the lines opened, but now it has come down to -4.5.
We believe this pick has value as both defenses are among the best in the league, and scoring points may be at a premium. That being said, New England has a much better offense with second-year signal caller Drake Maye in the running for the MVP.
Furthermore, Denver’s offense could be hampered as starting quarterback Bo Nix is out for the season due to an ankle injury he suffered in the Divisional round game. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham will take over under center, but he hasn’t played any meaningful football this season.
For our best bet in the Broncos vs Patriots game, we believe quarterback Drake Maye could throw for over 1.5 touchdowns. We feel this pick has value since the Patriots will be up against a dominant rush defense.
The Broncos have allowed just 11 rushing touchdowns this season, which is 10 fewer than what they have given up through the air. Maye and the Patriots could look to take advantage of the Broncos’ secondary near the end zone rather than trusting their run game.
In addition to that, Maye has been quite consistent this year when it comes to touchdown passes. He has already thrown 35 passing touchdowns, including the postseason, and threw 3 touchdowns in the game against the Texans during the Divisional round.
Denver Broncos’ linebacker Nik Bonitto has had a tremendous year once again. Over 17 games in the regular season, Bonitto recorded a career-best of 14 sacks to finish the year in the top five. Moreover, the four-year veteran also got to Josh Allen once in the Divisional round, while recording 1.5 sacks in the final game of the season as well.
On the other side, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has taken the fourth-most sacks this season. Maye was sacked a total of 52 times in the regular season. Coming to the postseason, the second-year signal caller has taken 5 sacks in the Wild Card and Divisional round games, respectively.
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Player Props to Target
Here are some of the top player props to target for the Broncos vs Patriots game, as sourced from FanDuel.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has attempted an average of 28 passes in the two postseason games they have played in. But, he may have to rely on his arm more on Sunday, considering the Broncos’ strength as a run-stopping unit.
Denver Broncos’ backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham hasn’t taken any meaningful snaps in the NFL for the better part of the last two years. He comes into Sunday’s high-pressure AFC Championship round game having thrown 8 interceptions in his career from basically 4 professional games.
Rushing Props
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 49.5 rushing yards:(-114)
New England’s running back Rhamondre Stevenson may see limited production on the ground against the Broncos. Denver has been excellent on run defense, having allowed just about 91.1 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, Stevenson generally splits most of his carries with TreVeyon Henderson, and while the former has performed better recently, it may not be enough against the Broncos front line of defense.
Cortland Sutton is the primary receiver for the Denver Broncos and is generally targeted the most in games. However, Sutton has not recorded more than 4 receptions in his last three games and will be going up against a defensively sound team. Additionally, there may be further challenges with Stidham not having much first-team experience.
We feel this three-leg same-game parlay has value since the Patriots are the favorites to win the AFC Championship game due to the absence of Bo Nix for the Broncos. Where statistically, both defenses are close to each other, New England has the edge on offense.
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is one of the go-to pass-catchers for Drake Maye in the Patriots’ receiving room. Diggs sees a sizeable number of targets per game and has caught 4 or more passes in 3 of his last 5 games.
With Nix not playing, Denver may rely more on its run game, and that will bring RJ Harvey into the mix. Harvey has done a fine job for the Broncos, especially in an increased role after JK Dobbins missed multiple games due to injury. The Broncos’ backup has a total of 12 touchdowns, including 7 on the ground and 5 in the air.
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Matchup Analysis
Here, we take a look at some of the important matchup analyses of the two teams.
Offense vs Defense Breakdown
Taking a look at the offensive and defensive capabilities of both teams, it is the New England Patriots who hold the edge. Starting with Denver, the Broncos are in the middle of the table in scoring points this season, with an average of 24.1 points per game, and rank near the top ten in yards per game (342.6). However, with Stidham under center, there is a level of uncertainty on offense.
The Patriots’ defense of late, especially in the postseason, has been incredible. They have held the Chargers and the Texans to just 3 and 16 points, respectively. They have limited touchdown scoring opportunities in the red zone, and the coverage has improved over the seasons.
New England’s offense is one of the top offenses in the league and is aided by explosive plays, especially in the run game. Quarterback Drake Maye has settled seamlessly into Mike Vrabel’s system and has been a league leader in terms of accuracy. The team ranks near the top 5 in both its run game and pass game yardage. However, they will be tested by Denver’s pass rush, which is by far the most elite in the NFL. The Broncos led the league with 68 sacks, 11 more than the second-best team.
Heading into this game, the Patriots are 1-4 against the Broncos in the postseason, but more interestingly, they are 0-4 in Denver. New England will be eyeing this as its best opportunity to rewrite this script, but counting out the Broncos will be a mistake.
The above odds are sourced from FanDuel. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!
I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!
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