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Can the American make it a hat-trick of wins against Medvedev?
Former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev and American prodigy Learner Tien will renew their mouth-watering rivalry at the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters. Merely a week after the southpaw defeated his Russian counterpart in Beijing, another chapter of this closely contested face-off will be scripted on Chinese soil. Can Medvedev finally break the jinx and emerge triumphant against Tien? Let’s take a look at how the two players line up ahead of this marquee clash. Follow BetMGM to get all the important betting odds at the Shanghai Masters.
After losing in the opening round at the 2025 US Open, Daniil Medvedev seems to have flipped a switch. The 29-year-old Russian is going through a physically and mentally draining season – with an underwhelming success rate of 60% and no titles to show for it. Currently ranked No. 18 in the world, Medvedev has the fourth highest win percentage (69.5%) among active players at the Masters-1000 level on hard courts. The former US Open winner has reached the final in Halle, and made three semifinals at the Open 13, Indian Wells and the China Open so far.
Learner Tien’s graph on the ATP circuit is on an upward spiral, and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. He reached his maiden Grand Slam Round of 16 at the 2025 Australian Open, and is currently at a career-high World No. 36 ranking. Having made quarterfinals at noteworthy events such as Acapulco, Mallorca and Hangzhou, the 19-year-old stunned the tennis world with his runner-up finish at the 2025 China Open. Tien has a win-loss record of 26-21 this year, and defeated the likes of Corentin Moutet and Cameron Norrie to enter this round.
Learner Tien has a 2-0 head-to-head record against Daniil Medvedev. The American achieved two narrow victories against the former World No. 1 in 2025.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Beijing | Semifinal | Learner Tien | 5-7 7-5 4-0 RET. |
| 2025 Australian Open | Round of 64 | Learner Tien | 6-3 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 1-6 7-6(7) |
| Daniil Medvedev | Category | Learner Tien |
| 18 | Current Ranking | 36 |
| 411-177 | Career W-L Record | 31-27 |
| 32-20 | YTD W-L Record | 26-21 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Medvedev raised a very interesting point about how Shanghai is a tournament where all players suffer physically, unlike other events where he struggles while other players are comfortable. This provides a more level playing field for someone like the Russian. Moreover, he is a former champion at the Masters-1000, and has been striking the ball very potently on both wings. Medvedev will look to take the attack to Tien, and prevent him from dictating play on his forehand.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev in three sets.
Medvedev is a strong favorite (3/10) over Tien, who comes in with extremely underwhelming odds (49/20) at the Rolex Shanghai Masters 2025. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Russian is likely to halve his deficit in the rivalry by attaining a straight sets win. Take a look at all the important odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Jay Calderon, Imagn Images)
