The No. 2 seed needs to win this week to remain in contention for an ATP Finals spot.
No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev will face unseeded James Duckworth in the 2025 Almaty Open semifinals on Saturday. The Russian veteran has been in top form over the past couple of months, and will be hunting down his first title of the year in Kazakhstan. However, qualifier Duckworth has proven to be a giant killer this week. The winner of this match will face either Alex Michelsen or Corentin Moutet/Jan-Lennard Struff in the summit clash on Sunday. With the help of BetMGM, we will give you all the outcomes for this contest.
When it comes to the Grand Slams, Daniil Medvedev had a horrific campaign this year. However, the 29-year-old has remained consistent on the ATP Tour. By defeating Fabian Marozsan in the quarterfinals here in Almaty, Medvedev has reached his third consecutive tour-level semifinal after Beijing and Shanghai. A former US Open winner and World No. 1, he is searching for a maiden championship run since 2023. Prior to this tournament, Medvedev finished as the runner-up in Halle alongside four semifinals. His success rate on serve is 65% and break point saving ratio is 59%.
James Duckworth is a former Top-50 player who is currently ranked No. 138 in the world. The Australian’s season and career win percentages before this tournament were under 30%. Duckworth was the top seed in qualifying, and came through with flying colors. The 33-year-old has defeated Blanchet, Diallo and Cobolli to book his spot in the semifinals. Primarily featuring on the ATP Challenger Tour, he has reached two finals in 2025 – winning one title in the process. Duckworth has won 70% points on first serve and 53% points on second serve in the ongoing season thus far.
Medvedev has a 1-0 record in the head-to-head against Duckworth. They faced each other at the 2021 Canada Masters in Toronto.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2021 Toronto | Round of 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-4 |
| Daniil Medvedev | Category | James Duckworth |
| 14 | Current Ranking | 138 |
| 415-178 | Career W-L Record | 73-119 |
| 36-21 | YTD W-L Record | 8-11 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Due to Medvedev’s deep position behind the baseline, his baseline attacks have extra flatness and zing to them. This makes it difficult for opponents to counter it with venom. The Russian also has an innate ability to rush through his service games, and he comes forward to stay on the attack. Duckworth must attempt to bring Medvedev to the net and constantly change direction to keep him guessing. Provided the second seed settles into a rhythm and extends the rallies, it will be practically impossible for the Aussie to get past him.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.
Medvedev (2/15) is a heavy favorite against Duckworth (19/4) in the 2025 ATP Almaty Open semifinal. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Russian has an 87% chance of advancing to Sunday’s final. Take a look at the odds for the match result and in-match specifics below (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images)
