The World No. 1 renews a rivalry against a familiar foe on Rod Laver Arena.
Still going strong in his quest for the Career Grand Slam, Carlos Alcaraz hits a Tommy Paul shaped roadblock in the Australian Open Round of 16. The World No. 1 is yet to drop a set at this year’s event despite enduring three challenging matches so far. Paul, who has troubled Carlitos in the past, has been in fine form since the start of 2026. The winner of this match-up will face either Alexander Bublik or Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinal stage.
Carlos Alcaraz is the top seed at this year’s Australian Open. He defeated Adam Walton in Round-1, before edging past Yannick Hanfmann and Corentin Moutet in two tricky tests. The 22-year-old entered Melbourne Park on the back of a 71-9 campaign in 2025. Unlike Alcaraz who won eight trophies, Paul could not add to his tally of four career championships last year. The World No. 20 has a success rate of 60% on tour, including a semifinal appearance at this Grand Slam three years ago.
American Tommy Paul is through to last 16 after Davidovich Fokina retires due to injury.
According to the tennis betting odds on BetMGM, Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite (-910) and Tommy Paul is the underdog (+575) in this Round of 16 contest on Rod Laver Arena. Here’s how we are betting on this high intensity battle at the Australian Open 2026, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Australian Open 2026, Round of 16
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Men’s Singles, Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 25, Not Before 13:30 Local
Court: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne
Best Bet: Tommy Paul +6.5 Games @ +104 as per FanDuel
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Betting Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
At one stage, the American powerhouse led the head-to-head against Alcaraz. He has a unique style of play dominated by flat baseline attacks and a ravishing backhand down the line. But once the Spaniard got a grasp of what to expect from Paul, he began mixing things up with more slices and half shots to vary the length and spin on the ball. Since their quarterfinal in Wimbledon two years ago, Paul has lost eight consecutive sets vs the World No. 1.
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At the start of 2026, Alcaraz made a crucial change in his service motion. He has a more smooth serve, gets his right arm back and in the striking position earlier, and follows through much better to give himself a higher shot at keeping the points short. In his three matches so far, he has served 23 aces with his first serve percentage hovering around the 70% mark. Against someone like Paul who doesn’t mind going the distance, we predict a game handicap of +6.5 games should be sufficient to yield a positive outcome.
Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form
Nitto ATP Finals 2025: Final
Paris Masters 2025: Round of 32
Japan Open 2025: Winner
Laver Cup 2025: Runner-Up
US Open 2025: Winner
Tommy Paul Recent Form
Adelaide International 2026: Semifinal
Brisbane International 2026: Round of 32
US Open 2025: Round of 32
Cincinnati Masters 2025: Round of 32
Wimbledon 2025: Round of 64
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Head to Head Record
The head-to-head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul is currently 5-2 in favor of the six-time Grand Slam champion. This includes two Grand Slam duels, four matches at the Masters-1000 level and a quarterfinal at the Paris Olympics in 2024.
Event
Round
Winner
Score
2025 Roland Garros
Quarterfinal
Carlos Alcaraz
6-0 6-1 6-4
2024 Paris Olympics
Quarterfinal
Carlos Alcaraz
6-3 7-6(7)
2024 Wimbledon
Quarterfinal
Carlos Alcaraz
5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023 Cincinnati
Round of 16
Carlos Alcaraz
7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3
2023 Toronto
Quarterfinal
Tommy Paul
6-3 4-6 6-3
2023 Miami
Round of 16
Carlos Alcaraz
6-4 6-4
2022 Montreal
Round of 32
Tommy Paul
6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3
How to Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul at the Australian Open 2026?
The Australian Open 2026 can be viewed live on a variety of streaming platforms and TV channels across the world. This includes Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport and TNT Sports – depending on where you are watching from.
Curious for Alcaraz vs. Paul.
They are 2-2 on hardcourts & all matches were great or close.
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