Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction and Betting Odds for the French Open 2025 Quarterfinals

Quarterfinal clash between in-form Alcaraz and breakthrough Paul on the Paris clay

Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz takes on 12th seed Tommy Paul in the Roland Garros quarterfinals today. The world No. 2 has looked sharp, dropping just three sets across four rounds, with strong wins over Giulio Zeppieri, Fabio Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur, and Ben Shelton.

Paul is into his first French Open quarterfinal after a gritty run that included five-set wins over Marton Fucsovics and Karen Khachanov, along with a straight-sets victory over Alexei Popyrin. Both are in form, but Alcaraz, with four Grand Slam titles and 10 clay-court trophies, enters as the clear favorite.

Clay Centurion 🧱 @carlosalcaraz #RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/DnXXxO9DlZ
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) June 1, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Preview

Alcaraz has been in red-hot form this season. With the level he’s displaying, the Spaniard has picked up titles in Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, and Rome, while also making deep runs in Melbourne (QF), Doha (QF), Indian Wells (SF) and Barcelona (F). But he suffered an adductor injury in the latter that ruled him out of Madrid.

His only early exit came in Miami, where he lost to David Goffin in three sets. Ahead of Roland Garros, he hit 133 aces, won 71% of first-serve points, and 37% on first-serve returns. Defensively sharp, he created 323 break point chances, converting a strong 45%.

Carlos Alcaraz with one of the points of the tournament at Roland Garros.

The amount of court he covered was ridiculous.

The finesse he has to pull off that volley is just insanity.

Gifted. 🇪🇸😮‍💨

pic.twitter.com/VPuyt1YCiN
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) June 1, 2025

Paul seems consistent this season with semifinal runs in Adelaide, Dallas, Houston, and Rome. He also reached the Melbourne quarterfinals before falling to Alexander Zverev in four sets. Apart from a round of 32 loss in Miami, he’s made the last 16 in every event. Statistically, Paul fired 167 aces, won 73% of first-serve points and 33% on first-serve returns, converting 46% of 243 break point opportunities.

Tommy Paul becomes the first American man to reach the Roland Garros quarterfinals since Andre Agassi in 2003.

🇺🇲❤ pic.twitter.com/CHR4TDYJrs
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) June 1, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Head-to-Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Tommy Paul 4-2, but their matchups have rarely been straightforward. Every encounter has featured either tiebreaks or extended sets, reflecting how closely contested their battles have been. It all started in 2022 at the Canadian Masters, where Paul stunned Alcaraz in a three-set thriller featuring two tiebreaks.

Alcaraz responded in 2023 with a straight-sets win in Miami, though Paul struck back later that year in Canada, again winning in three. Since then, Alcaraz has taken control, claiming their last three meetings: Cincinnati 2023, Wimbledon 2024, and the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Year
2024	Paris Olympics	Quarterfinal	Carlos Alcaraz	6–3, 7–6(7)
2024	Wimbledon	Quarterfinal	Carlos Alcaraz	5–7, 6–4, 6–2, 6–2
2023	Cincinnati	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	7–6(6), 6–7(0), 6–3
2023	Canada	Quarterfinal	Tommy Paul	6–3, 4–6, 6–3
2023	Miami	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	6–4, 6–4
2022	Canada	Round of 32	Tommy Paul	6–7(4), 7–6(7), 6–3

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Comparison

Carlos Alcaraz	Category	Tommy Paul
2	Ranking	12
239-61	Career W-L	197-133
30-5	YTD W-L	21-8
19	Career Titles	4
4	Grand Slams	0
3	YTD Titles	0

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Prediction

Alcaraz’s success across surfaces, combined with sharper return numbers and higher break point volume, gives him a subtle edge. Paul’s consistency and serve metrics will keep him competitive, but based on current form and season stats, Alcaraz could advance further.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets

Also Read: Who Are the Coaches of Aryna Sabalenka? All about the Coaching Entourage of Current World No. 1

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul French Open 2025 Betting Odds

As the defending champion, a four-time Grand Slam winner, and current world No. 2, Alcaraz brings both record and pressure into this matchup. His form this season backs up the odds (1/10 in his favor), and his clay-court dominance only strengthens his case.

Paul, however, is playing his best tennis at Roland Garros, making a deep run that reflects his steady 2025 campaign. While Paul has the tools to test Alcaraz, he’ll need to play near-flawless tennis to overcome the gap.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Carlos Alcaraz: 1/10

Tommy Paul: 13/2

2025 Roland Garros

Carlos Alcaraz

Tommy Paul

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.