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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds and Best Bets (Australian Open 2026 Final, February 1)

Sankalp Harikrishnan

All you need to know about the men’s singles final at Melbourne Park.

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and 10-time champion Novak Djokovic return to Rod Laver Arena after their spine-tingling semifinals for a monstrous clash in the Australian Open 2026 final. The Spaniard last met the Djoker in the US Open semis, where he triumphed in straight sets. However, this is Djokovic’s home turf and his chase for the elusive 25th Grand Slam places him in a potent position. As the two warriors take centre stage on the final night of the tournament, who will emerge as the king of Melbourne?

Alcaraz played a near perfect set of matches until the semifinal against Zverev, where he overcame cramps to win in five sets. The 22-year-old is the top seed at the opening major of the year, and is looking to complete a Career Grand Slam. The six-time major champion had a 71-9 record in 2025. Djokovic, who reached the semifinal of all the Grand Slams, conquered the Sinner challenge in his last match. The Serbian icon has captured 101 career trophies en route to maintaining his No. 4 rankings in the world.

According to the tennis betting odds, Carlos Alcaraz (-335) is the favorite to win his maiden crown in Melbourne Park as per BetMGM. Novak Djokovic (+255) is the underdog finalist on the BetMGM moneyline. Here’s how we are betting on the Australian Open 2026 championship contest between Alcaraz and Djokovic, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.

  • Tournament & Round: Australian Open 2026, Final
  • Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
  • Format: Men’s Singles, Best of Five Sets
  • Date & Start Time: February 1, 19:30 Local
  • Court: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne
  • Best Bet: Total Games >39.5 @ +106 as per BetMGM
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Betting Odds

Given below are the latest odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.

MarketBetMGMFanDuel
MoneylineAlcaraz (-335), Djokovic (+255)Alcaraz (-320), Djokovic (+255)
Game HandicapAlcaraz -4.5 (-121), Djokovic +4.5 (-104)Alcaraz -4.5 (-122), Djokovic +4.5 (-106)
Total Games>38.5 (-107), <38.5 (-117)>38.5 (-112), <38.5 (-118)
Set BettingAlcaraz 3-0 (+175), Alcaraz 3-1 (+260)Alcaraz 3-0 (+170), Alcaraz 3-1 (+260)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Predictions & Picks

Our Pick: Total Games Over 39.5 at +106

The Alcaraz vs Djokovic encounters have historically been filled with loads of drama. Both players like to remain steadfast from the baseline and vary the pace and bounce to dictate play. Watch out for the cross-court exchanges, as it happens to be the x-factor shot that will bring the Spanish and Serbian fighters forward. Considering their last four match-ups have featured at least a tiebreaker or split up of sets, Alcaraz and Djokovic could go the distance on Sunday.

Against Zverev, Carlitos altered his return position based on the heat and court conditions. After a change in his service motion, a high first serve percentage will be imperative to stay in control and drain out Djokovic’s energy. On the other hand, expect the 24-time Grand Slam to flex his muscles and unleash some heavy groundstrokes to keep the rallies as short as possible. He is likely to target depth on Alcaraz’s forehand and wide half-trackers on the backhand wing.

Our prediction is that regardless of the victor, this duel has all the ingredients to go to the fourth or fifth set. This is why the total games potentially going over the 39.5 mark is the best bet at +106 odds on BetMGM.

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

  • Nitto ATP Finals 2025: Final
  • Paris Masters 2025: Round of 32
  • Japan Open 2025: Winner
  • Laver Cup 2025: Runner-Up
  • US Open 2025: Winner

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

  • Hellenic Championship 2025: Winner
  • Shanghai Masters 2025: Semifinal
  • US Open 2025: Semifinal
  • Wimbledon 2025: Semifinal
  • Roland Garros 2025: Semifinal

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Head to Head Record

Novak Djokovic has a slight edge of 5-4 in the head-to-head against Carlos Alcaraz. The rivalry began in 2022, and featured multiple classics over the years. At the Grand Slams, it is the reigning World No. 1 who has an advantageous 3-2 record. He also won their most recent encounter at the US Open in 2025.

EventRoundWinnerScore
2025 US OpenSemifinalCarlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6(4) 6-2
2025 Australian OpenQuarterfinalNovak Djokovic4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4
2024 Paris OlympicsFinalNovak Djokovic7-6(3) 7-6(2)
2024 WimbledonFinalCarlos Alcaraz6-2 6-2 7-6(4)
2023 Nitto ATP FinalsSemifinalNovak Djokovic6-3 6-2
2023 CincinnatiFinalNovak Djokovic5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4)
2023 WimbledonFinalCarlos Alcaraz1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4
2023 Roland GarrosSemifinalNovak Djokovic6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1
2022 MadridSemifinalCarlos Alcaraz6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)

How to Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open 2026?

The Australian Open 2026 can be viewed live on a variety of streaming platforms and TV channels across the world. This includes Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport and TNT Sports – depending on where you are watching from.

DateFebruary 1, 2026
Time19:30 Local
TournamentAustralian Open 2026, Final
SurfaceOutdoor Hard Court
CourtRod Laver Arena, Melbourne
TV/StreamingTennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport, TNT Sports

(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.

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