Season-defining clash as Alcaraz and Sinner battle for royalty in Riyadh.
The stage is set for yet another high-voltage battle, as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner prepare to collide in the finals of the Six Kings Slam 2025. Alcaraz stormed past Taylor Fritz in straight sets after receiving a bye, while Sinner remains flawless, dispatching Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic without dropping a set.
Alcaraz enters on the back of an extraordinary run, having claimed three straight titles in Cincinnati, the US Open, and Tokyo. The Spaniard’s 2025 season has been nothing short of spectacular, capturing eight titles across surfaces, including Roland Garros, the US Open, Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, London, Cincinnati, and Tokyo. He also made deep runs in Barcelona and Wimbledon. Beyond the trophies, his fierce rivalry with Sinner has defined much of his year. Alcaraz’s statistical dominance underscores his form with 429 aces, 74% of first-serve points won, 35% on returns, and a 45% conversion rate on 688 break points.
Sinner, meanwhile, has been a force in his own right. He lifted titles in Melbourne Park, Wimbledon, and Beijing, taking down the likes of Alexander Zverev, Alcaraz himself, and Learner Tien along the way. He reached finals in Rome, Roland Garros, Cincinnati, and the US Open, all falling short against Alcaraz, cementing their head-to-head rivalry as the season’s defining narrative. After returning from a three-month hiatus due to a doping violation, Sinner has been clinical, registering 310 aces, winning 79% of first-serve points, 34% on returns, and converting 45% of 444 break points.
Carlos Alcaraz holds a 10-5 lead over Jannik Sinner in their head-to-head, marking one of the fiercest rivalries on the ATP Tour this season. The duo has clashed at nearly every Grand Slam in recent years, with memorable highs and comebacks defining their encounters.
Their first main-draw meeting came at the 2021 Paris Masters, where Alcaraz won in straight sets. Sinner struck back the following season at Wimbledon with a four-set triumph and later repeated victories in 2022 in Umag and Miami and in 2023. Despite these flashes, Alcaraz has dominated the last eight encounters, claiming seven wins, including this season’s Rome, Roland Garros, Cincinnati, and the US Open. Sinner took the title in Wimbledon, winning in four sets. It is worth noting that the Cincinnati win came via walkover after Sinner withdrew due to illness.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US Open | Final | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2025 | Cincinnati | Final | Carlos Alcaraz | 5-0, Retired |
| 2025 | Wimbledon | Final | Jannik Sinner | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2025 | Roland Garros | Final | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(2) |
| 2025 | Rome | Final | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5), 6-1 |
| 2024 | Beijing | Final | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) |
| 2024 | Roland Garros | Semifinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2024 | Indian Wells | Semifinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 2023 | Beijing | Semifinal | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(4), 6-1 |
| 2023 | Miami | Semifinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 |
| 2023 | Indian Wells | Semifinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(4), 6-3 |
| 2022 | US Open | Quarterfinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3 |
| 2022 | Umag | Final | Jannik Sinner | 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-1 |
| 2022 | Wimbledon | Round of 16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-1, 6-4, 6-7(8), 6-3 |
| 2021 | Paris | Round of 32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(1), 7-5 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Category | Jannik Sinner |
| 1 | Current Ranking | 2 |
| 276-63 | Career W-L | 306-86 |
| 67-7 | YTD W-L | 43-6 |
| 24 | Career Titles | 21 |
| 6 | Grand Slams | 4 |
| 8 | YTD Titles | 3 |
While Sinner has been serving and returning extremely well, Alcaraz has been someone who knows how to exploit it. The Italian will look to take control of rallies with his attacking return position – taking time away from his opponent. If he opts for his favorite down the line backhands, Alcaraz is one of the few players who can counter it with a fierce forehand into the open court. The first serve percentages could determine the outcome of this contest to a large extent.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets
There is practically nothing separating the two champions in the Six Kings Slam 2025 final. Sinner has an extremely slight edge over Alcaraz, with pre-match odds of 4/5.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Carlos Alcaraz: Evens
Jannik Sinner: 4/5
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Sets Under 2.5: 13/20
Total Sets Over 2.5: 6/5
Overall Games Under 23.5: 4/5
Overall Games Over 23.5: 19/20
Set 1 Winner Alcaraz: 19/20
Set 1 Winner Sinner: 5/6
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
Mandatory Image Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
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