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The ATP’s headliner battles the Canadian No. 1 for a spot in the final.
Top seed and 2025’s official year-end World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will take on the in-form Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinal of the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. The Spanish sensation emerged unscathed with three wins in the group stage. Meanwhile, his 25-year-old opponent earned a crucial win over Alexander Zverev to enter this fixture. The winner is set to battle either Jannik Sinner or Alex de Minaur in Sunday’s final. Continue reading to know more about the preview, prediction, stats and odds (via BetMGM) for this contest.
There was a lot of pressure on Carlos Alcaraz ahead of the Nitto ATP Finals. The 22-year-old had to win three matches in order to finish the year as the No. 1 ranked player in the world. With straight sets wins over Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti, and a hard fought battle against Taylor Fritz, Carlitos sealed the deal. The six-time Grand Slam champion has won eight trophies in 2025. This includes a win-loss record of 67-8 and a run of nine straight tournaments of reaching the final.
At one point of time, Felix Auger-Aliassime had an outstanding 3-0 record against Alcaraz. However, the tables have turned over the past couple of years. When it comes to indoor hard courts, the World No. 8 is undefeated against Alcaraz. Auger-Aliassime has won three titles this year, and returned to form at the majors by entering his second US Open semifinal. The 25-year-old Canadian has a success rate around inching close to the 70% mark – which is why he remains an outer favorite to capture the crown this week.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Auger-Aliassime by 4-3. Since 2023, the World No. 1 hasn’t lost a single match against his Canadian counterpart.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 Paris Olympics | Semifinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024 Roland Garros | Round of 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-1 |
| 2024 Indian Wells | Round of 32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023 Indian Wells | Quarterfinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022 Basel | Semifinal | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022 Davis Cup | Round Robin | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021 US Open | Quarterfinal | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6-3 3-1 RET. |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Category | Felix Auger-Aliassime |
| 1 | Current Ranking | 8 |
| 276-64 | Career W-L Record | 263-169 |
| 67-8 | YTD W-L Record | 48-22 |
| 24 | Career Titles | 8 |
| 8 | YTD Titles | 3 |
| 6 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Alcaraz’s indoor record against Auger-Aliassime may not give him a whole lot of optimism ahead of this clash. However, the two encounters were played when the Spaniard had just become World No. 1 for the first time, and he hadn’t developed a fast-paced game yet. He will know how to trouble the Auger-Aliassime and introduce variety in order to enter the summit clash. We predict a battling win for Alcaraz.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in three sets.
Alcaraz (2/9) is the favorite and Auger-Aliassime (7/2) is the underdog for the Nitto ATP Finals 2025 semifinal. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Spaniard has a 74% chance of entering the final. Take a look at the odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Amber Searls, Imagn Images)
