$1,500
Last year’s Australian Open finalists return for another showdown.
In a repeat of last year’s sensational Australian Open final, top seed Aryna Sabalenka and World No. 7 Madison Keys will clash in the 2026 Brisbane International quarterfinal. It will be a battle of the baseline forces on the Pat Rafter Arena, with the winner set to face either Elena Rybakina or Karolina Muchova in the next round. While the Belarusian World No. 1 has the edge in the rivalry, Keys emerged on the right side in their only other match-up in this country.
Sabalenka dominated the 2025 season with four titles and five finals. Even a vastly impressive 37-15 record like that of Keys seems timid when compared with the four-time Grand Slam champion’s 63-12 rampage. After claiming her second consecutive US Open crown, Sabalenka finished as the runner-up in the WTA Finals Riyadh. Meanwhile, Keys had a phenomenal first half of the season, and will be hoping to repeat her heroics. The American is entering this contest on the back of a spine-tingling 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(4) thriller against Diana Shnaider.
According to the tennis betting odds, Aryna Sabalenka comes in as the favorite (-480) and Madison Keys is the underdog (+350) in this Brisbane International humdinger (via BetMGM). Here’s how we are betting on Sabalenka vs Keys on Friday, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Given below are the odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | BetMGM | FanDuel |
| Moneyline | Sabalenka (-480), Keys (+350) | Sabalenka (-590), Keys (+400) |
| Game Handicap | Sabalenka -5.5 (+138), Keys +5.5 (-180) | Sabalenka -4.5 (-138), Keys +4.5 (+104) |
| Total Games | <19.5 (+114) | >20.5 (-110) |
| Set Betting | Sabalenka 2-0 (-159) | Sabalenka 2-0 (-175) |
Our Pick: Aryna Sabalenka -5.5 Games @ +138
Ever since her loss at the Battle of the Sexes, Aryna Sabalenka has been a woman on a mission. She is out to cause a blitzkrieg and obliterate anyone that stands in her path of progression. As the defending champion in Brisbane, the 27-year-old knows these courts better than most. Winning 80% points on her first serve and generating 19 break point opportunities across her first two matches, Sabalenka is undoubtedly an outright favorite to retain her crown.
If the woman standing across the net wasn’t intimidating enough, Madison Keys will have to overcome the fatigue of her three hour marathon against Shnaider in the Round of 16. The No. 5 seed has been solid on serve en route to this match, but keeping up with the wrath of the world’s best player is a challenging ask. This is why a daring pre-match prediction of Sabalenka -5.5 games at +138 is a best bet on Friday.
Sabalenka has a record of 5-2 in the head-to-head against Keys. Their most recent encounter finished in a 6-0 6-1 drubbing in favor of the Belarusian tigress. At the majors, Sabalenka leads 2-1. However, Keys defeated her in their only previous meeting Down Under – in the final of the 2025 Australian Open.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Indian Wells | Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2025 Australian Open | Final | Madison Keys | 6-3 2-6 7-5 |
| 2024 Beijing | Round of 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023 US Open | Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) |
| 2023 Wimbledon | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2021 Berlin | Round of 16 | Madison Keys | 6-4 1-6 7-5 |
| 2018 Cincinnati | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-4 |
The Brisbane International 2026 can be streamed live on various platforms and channels, depending on which part of the world you are watching from. This includes Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN.
| Date | January 9, 2026 |
| Time | Not Before 11:30 AM Local |
| Tournament | Brisbane International, Quarterfinal |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Pat Rafter Arena, Brisbane |
| TV/Streaming | Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN. |
(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)
