Last year’s Australian Open finalists return for another showdown.
In a repeat of last year’s sensational Australian Open final, top seed Aryna Sabalenka and World No. 7 Madison Keys will clash in the 2026 Brisbane International quarterfinal. It will be a battle of the baseline forces on the Pat Rafter Arena, with the winner set to face either Elena Rybakina or Karolina Muchova in the next round. While the Belarusian World No. 1 has the edge in the rivalry, Keys emerged on the right side in their only other match-up in this country.
Sabalenka says the length of the tennis season is insane & she’s going to skip some events to protect her body, ‘This season we will try to manage it a bit better, even though they’re going to fine me… They just follow their interests, but they're not focusing on protecting all… pic.twitter.com/V4s71wacXv
Sabalenka dominated the 2025 season with four titles and five finals. Even a vastly impressive 37-15 record like that of Keys seems timid when compared with the four-time Grand Slam champion’s 63-12 rampage. After claiming her second consecutive US Open crown, Sabalenka finished as the runner-up in the WTA Finals Riyadh. Meanwhile, Keys had a phenomenal first half of the season, and will be hoping to repeat her heroics. The American is entering this contest on the back of a spine-tingling 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(4) thriller against Diana Shnaider.
According to the tennis betting odds, Aryna Sabalenka comes in as the favorite (-480) and Madison Keys is the underdog (+350) in this Brisbane International humdinger (via BetMGM). Here’s how we are betting on Sabalenka vs Keys on Friday, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Brisbane International 2026, Quarterfinal
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Women’s Singles, Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: January 9, Not Before 11:30 AM Local
Court: Pat Rafter Arena, Brisbane
Best Bet: Sabalenka -5.5 Games @ +138 as per BetMGM
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Betting Odds
Given below are the odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
Market
BetMGM
FanDuel
Moneyline
Sabalenka (-480), Keys (+350)
Sabalenka (-590), Keys (+400)
Game Handicap
Sabalenka -5.5 (+138), Keys +5.5 (-180)
Sabalenka -4.5 (-138), Keys +4.5 (+104)
Total Games
<19.5 (+114)
>20.5 (-110)
Set Betting
Sabalenka 2-0 (-159)
Sabalenka 2-0 (-175)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Aryna Sabalenka -5.5 Games @ +138
Ever since her loss at the Battle of the Sexes, Aryna Sabalenka has been a woman on a mission. She is out to cause a blitzkrieg and obliterate anyone that stands in her path of progression. As the defending champion in Brisbane, the 27-year-old knows these courts better than most. Winning 80% points on her first serve and generating 19 break point opportunities across her first two matches, Sabalenka is undoubtedly an outright favorite to retain her crown.
21+. AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA/MD/MA/MI/NJ/OH/PA/TN/ VA/WV/WY only. Offer not available in DC/MS/NV/NY/PR. New customers only. Qualifying deposit (min $10) and first real money wager required. If qualifying bet settles as a loss, user is refunded 100% in non-withdrawable bonus bets up to $1,500. Full T&Cs can be found on betmgm.com.
If the woman standing across the net wasn’t intimidating enough, Madison Keys will have to overcome the fatigue of her three hour marathon against Shnaider in the Round of 16. The No. 5 seed has been solid on serve en route to this match, but keeping up with the wrath of the world’s best player is a challenging ask. This is why a daring pre-match prediction of Sabalenka -5.5 games at +138 is a best bet on Friday.
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Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form
WTA Finals: Final
Wuhan Open: Semifinal
US Open: Winner
Cincinnati Open: Quarterfinal
Wimbledon: Semifinal
Madison Keys Recent Form
WTA Finals: Group Stage
US Open: Round of 128
Cincinnati Open: Round of 16
National Bank Open: Quarterfinal
Wimbledon: Round of 32
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Head to Head Record
Sabalenka has a record of 5-2 in the head-to-head against Keys. Their most recent encounter finished in a 6-0 6-1 drubbing in favor of the Belarusian tigress. At the majors, Sabalenka leads 2-1. However, Keys defeated her in their only previous meeting Down Under – in the final of the 2025 Australian Open.
Event
Round
Winner
Score
2025 Indian Wells
Semifinal
Aryna Sabalenka
6-0 6-1
2025 Australian Open
Final
Madison Keys
6-3 2-6 7-5
2024 Beijing
Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
6-4 6-3
2023 US Open
Semifinal
Aryna Sabalenka
0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
2023 Wimbledon
Quarterfinal
Aryna Sabalenka
6-2 6-4
2021 Berlin
Round of 16
Madison Keys
6-4 1-6 7-5
2018 Cincinnati
Quarterfinal
Aryna Sabalenka
6-3 6-4
How to Watch Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys at the Brisbane International 2026?
The Brisbane International 2026 can be streamed live on various platforms and channels, depending on which part of the world you are watching from. This includes Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN.
A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.
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