10th meeting between the two players.
They’ve played multiple thrilling semifinals and a final before, and Saturday will be no different! Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will play out a blockbuster summit clash at the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. While Sabalenka is a former champion from 2023 and the runner-up in 2024, Gauff is gunning for her maiden title at the Spanish capital. As the No. 1 and No. 4 seeds clash, fans will be treated to a spectacle at Manolo Santana Stadium.
Aryna Sabalenka’s journey to the final has been relatively straightforward. The Belarusian has dropped a solitary set en route to Saturday’s showpiece event. Her most challenging test was against Elise Mertens in the Round of 32 – Sabalenka won 3-6 6-2 6-1. After this, she defeated Peyton Stearns, Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina in comfortable fashion to make the final.
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With her season best being a quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open and in Stuttgart, Coco Gauff didn’t come into the Madrid Open with as much expectation on her shoulders. Yet, she has played the most assured tennis seen by her in 2025. Like her 26-year-old opponent, Gauff has also dropped only one set against Yastremska en route to the final. Her other wins came against Ann Li, Belinda Bencic, Mirra Andreeva and Iga Swiatek.
Coco Gauff narrowly edges out the head to head against Aryna Sabalenka by 5-4. This will be their first meeting in 2025.
Gauff vs Sabalenka is arguably one of the most seesaw match-ups on the WTA circuit. The first ever meeting between them came in 2020 at Lexington, when the American edged out a three set win. Since then, the players have split the matches. Until their most recent 2024 WTA Finals encounter, the 21-year-old had never beaten Sabalenka in straight sets.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 WTA Finals | Semifinal | Coco Gauff | 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2024 Wuhan | Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024 Australian Open | Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2023 US Open | Final | Coco Gauff | 2-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023 Indian Wells | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2022 Toronto | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | 7-5 4-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021 Rome | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2020 Ostrava | Round of 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 7-5 7-6(2) |
| 2020 Lexington | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | 7-6(4) 4-6 6-4 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Category | Coco Gauff |
| 3 | Grand Slams | 1 |
| 19 | WTA Singles Titles | 10 |
| 6 | WTA Doubles Titles | 9 |
| 8 | WTA-1000 Titles | 2 |
| R2 (Tokyo 2020) | Olympics Best Performance | R3 (Paris 2024) |
| No. 1 | Current World Ranking | No. 4 |
Unlike most of their previous encounters where Sabalenka has taken the attacking route and Gauff has assumed the role of a counter-puncher, it is the youngster who is dictating rallies this week. She is likely to adopt a deep position for baseline exchanges, but attempt to make the World No. 1 feel uneasy with some unwavering stroke making. Expect Sabalenka to throw everything left in the tank at Gauff.
Prediction: Coco Gauff in three sets.
Aryna Sabalenka Win: 7/4
Coco Gauff Win: 2/5
