Feb 22, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Andre Fili (red gloves) fights Melquizael Costa (blue gloves) in the featherweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

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Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

Andre Fili has been grinding in the UFC since 2013. He was surviving wars and collecting paychecks while younger fighters come and go like seasonal trends. At 35, he’s seen everything the octagon can throw at him, from rising prospects to former champions. Christian Rodriguez represents the new generation trying to establish their foothold in the 145 pound rankings.

The 27 year old has shown flashes of brilliance, dominating prospects like Raul Rosas Jr. and Austin Bashi with complete performances that had people talking about his potential. But consistency has been his kryptonite, with puzzling losses to Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa leaving fans wondering which Rodriguez will show up on fight night. Both fighters are coming off losses to Costa, though their defeats came in vastly different fashions that tell the story of their current states. Now they will fight each other at UFC Vegas 109.

Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Preview

The physical matchup creates interesting dynamics that could decide the fight’s outcome. Andre Fili stands 5’11” with a massive 74 inch reach, giving him significant advantages over the 5’7″ Rodriguez who carries a 71 inch reach. Fili throws 3.84 significant strikes per minute with modest 37% accuracy, though his volume-based approach means he absorbs 4.15 strikes coming back at him. His striking defense sits at 51%. Where Fili excels is his grappling foundation. He averages 2.17 takedown attempts with 44% success and defends 70% of takedowns thrown at him. His submission game remains limited with just 0.2 attempts per fight, but his wrestling base keeps him competitive in scrambles.

Christian Rodriguez operates more efficiently, landing 3.63 significant strikes per minute with much better 50% accuracy while absorbing only 2.66 strikes. His striking defense checks in at 54%. Rodriguez’s grappling numbers reveal a well rounded fighter: 1.84 takedown attempts with 46% accuracy and solid 69% takedown defense. Unlike Fili, he actively hunts submissions with 1.2 attempts per bout, making him dangerous wherever the fight goes.

Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez MMA Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have spoken decisively in this matchup. According to Fanduel, Christian Rodriguez enters as a solid -260 favorite. Meanwhile, Andre Fili comes back as a +196 underdog. The line suggests bookmakers view this as Rodriguez’s fight to win.

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The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+146) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -190.

Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Predictions And Picks

This fight presents a classic dilemma between backing the favorite’s skill or the underdog’s physical advantages. Rodriguez clearly possesses superior technique and finishing ability, but his inconsistency issues create legitimate concerns against a grizzled veteran like Fili who knows how to exploit mental lapses.

Fili’s path involves using his reach to frustrate Rodriguez early, then capitalizing on any momentum shifts as rounds progress. His experience in these situations gives him clear advantages if Rodriguez starts slowly or loses focus. He knows how to grind out ugly decisions when his physical tools create problems for opponents.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Christian Rodriguez to win the fight via unanimous decision.

(Image Credit: Steven Bisig – Imagn Images)

Andre Fili

Christian Rodriguez

UFC vegas 109

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!