Sascha is looking to back up his Hong Kong title with another triumph.
No. 3 seed Alexander Bublik is set to open his account at the 2026 Qatar ExxonMobil Open against former Olympic medalist Pablo Carreno Busta of Spain. This Round of 32 encounter will determine who enters the pre-quarterfinals to face either Arthur Fils or Kamil Majchrzak. The Kazakh powerhouse may be in top form this year, proving his quality over multiple tournaments. However, PCB has a significant advantage in this rivalry so far. Can the qualifier play his trump cards to pick up another victory over Bublik on Tuesday?
The way Alexander Bublik completely turned his career around since may is fascinating.
Holding an impeccable 11-3 record to kick off the 2026 campaign, Alexander Bublik has announced himself as a Top-10 mainstay. The 28-year-old captured his ninth career singles title in Hong Kong, before reaching a maiden Australian Open Round of 16 in Melbourne. The 6’5” Kazakh also made the semis in Rotterdam last week, where he was humbled by Auger-Aliassime. On the other hand, Pablo Carreno Busta earned a couple of solid straight set wins in qualifying to enter the Doha main draw. A two-time Grand Slam semifinalist and former World No. 10, the Spaniard is looking to improve on his 1-3 record this week.
According to the tennis betting odds, Alexander Bublik (-335) is the favorite to win this encounter according to BetMGM. Meanwhile, Pablo Carreno Busta (+245) is a firm underdog as per BetMGM’s pre-match odds. Here’s how we are betting on this Round of 32 encounter at the ATP Qatar Open 2026 in Doha, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: ATP Qatar Open 2026, Round of 32
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Men’s Singles, Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: February 17,
Court: Centre Court, Khalifa International Complex
Best Bet: Total Games in Set-1 <9.5 @ +107 as per BetMGM
Alexander Bublik vs Pablo Carreno Busta Betting Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Alexander Bublik vs Pablo Carreno Busta from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
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This is a match-up where we cannot go by the past encounters to place our bets. The last face-off between Bublik and Carreno Busta was back in 2022, when the Tokyo Olympics bronze medalist improved to 4-0 in the head-to-head. At the moment, he has slipped out of the Top-100 and Bublik is ranked No. 10 in the world. Regardless, both players tend to create a lot of chaos in the betting market due to their unpredictability. We are sensing a 6-2 or 6-3 opening set scoreline based on whoever wins the toss and gets the first break.
When it comes to hard court statistics this year, Bublik has already notched 137 aces so far. The live wire was defeated by eventual champion Rublev here in 2025, and will be determined to gain some ranking points and prove himself on the big stage. Meanwhile, Carreno Busta’s only main draw success in 2026 came at the Open Occitanie. He has won 77% service games on hard courts this year, and also earned 35% efficiency in terms of break point conversions.
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Alexander Bublik Recent Form
ABN Amro Rotterdam Open 2026: Semifinal
Davis Cup 2026: 1-1
Australian Open 2026: Round of 16
Hong Kong Tennis Open 2026: Winner
Pablo Carreno Busta Recent Form
ABN Amro Rotterdam Open 2026: Q1
Open Occitanie 2026: Round of 16
Australian Open 2026: Round of 128
ASB Classic 2026: Q1
Brisbane International 2026: Round of 32
Alexander Bublik vs Pablo Carreno Busta Head to Head Record
Pablo Carreno Busta has an incredible 4-0 record against Alexander Bublik so far. Prior to their upcoming fixture in Doha, the rivalry has spanned between 2016-2022, with the more experienced campaigner earning four narrow victories across two surfaces. Take a look at their history:
Event
Round
Winner
Score
2022 US Open
Round of 64
Carreno Busta
4-6 6-4 6-3 7-6(5)
2022 Monte-Carlo
Round of 32
Carreno Busta
4-6 7-6(3) 4-3 RET.
2019 Chengdu
Final
Carreno Busta
6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(3)
2016 Moscow
Quarterfinal
Carreno Busta
6-4 2-6 7-6(1)
How to Watch Alexander Bublik vs Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP Qatar Open 2026?
The ATP Qatar Open 2026 can be streamed live on various platforms and channels, depending on which part of the world you are watching from. This includes Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN.
A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.
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