De Minaur faces Medvedev in a high-voltage Shanghai Masters quarterfinals
Seventh seed Alex de Minaur is set to face the 16th seed, Daniil Medvedev, in a high-stakes quarterfinal at the Shanghai Masters 2025. Both players, having received first-round byes, have looked in solid form so far. De Minaur cruised past Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Kamil Majchrzak, and Nuno Borges in straight sets, while Medvedev swept through Dalibor Svrcina and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before edging Learner Tien in a grueling three-setter featuring two tiebreaks.
De Minaur enters Shanghai following a strong semifinal run in Beijing, where he fell to Jannik Sinner in three sets. Earlier this season, the Aussie captured the Washington title, reached the Rotterdam final, and made the Monte Carlo semifinals, alongside multiple quarterfinal runs in Melbourne, Doha, Barcelona, Toronto, and the US Open. Despite some early exits, his all-court game has held steady, backed by 243 aces, a 74% first-serve win rate, and a 44% break-point conversion across 498 opportunities.
Medvedev, meanwhile, continues his steady but title-less campaign. Since Rome 2023, the Russian has reached six finals, including Halle 2025, where he lost to Alexander Bublik. This season, he’s compiled a string of deep runs, semifinals in Marseille and Indian Wells, and quarterfinals in Doha, Dubai, Madrid, Libema, and Washington, plus recent semifinals in Beijing after defeating Zverev before retiring against Tien due to cramps. Medvedev’s numbers remain elite with 409 aces, 75% first-serve points won, 33% on return, and a 38% break point conversion rate of 437 opportunities.
Daniil Medvedev leads 7-4 in his head-to-head against Alex de Minaur. Their rivalry began in Sydney 2018, where Medvedev rallied for a comeback win, then extended his streak with victories at Winston-Salem 2018, the 2020 Paris Masters, and the 2022 ATP Cup. De Minaur finally broke through at the 2022 Paris Masters, and since then, their meetings have been evenly split. The Aussie claimed their most recent clash in Monte Carlo, winning in straight sets.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Monte-Carlo | Round of 16 | Alex de Minaur | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Nitto ATP Finals | Round Robin | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Roland Garros | Round of 16 | Alex de Minaur | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Beijing | Round of 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| 2023 | US Open | Round of 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 2023 | Canada | Quarterfinal | Alex de Minaur | 7-6(7), 7-5 |
| 2022 | Paris | Round of 32 | Alex de Minaur | 6-4, 2-6, 7-5 |
| 2022 | ATP Cup | Round Robin | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 2020 | Paris | Round of 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 2018 | Winston-Salem | Round of 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2018 | Sydney | Final | Daniil Medvedev | 1-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
| Alex de Minaur | Category | Daniil Medvedev |
| 7 | Current Ranking | 18 |
| 296-173 | Career W-L | 409-177 |
| 47-18 | YTD W-L | 30-20 |
| 10 | Career Titles | 20 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Medvedev’s experience and serve dominance make him a dangerous opponent, yet De Minaur’s confidence from recent deep runs and his quick court coverage should see him edge past the Russian.
Prediction: Alex de Minaur in straight sets
De Minaur (-215) enters as the slight favorite, backed by sharper recent form and strong baseline consistency. Medvedev (+174) has the firepower to challenge, but the Aussie’s momentum and rhythm have not been up to the mark in recent times.
Here are the betting odds according to FanDuel:
Alex de Minaur: -215
Daniil Medvedev: +174
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via FanDuel):
Total Sets Under 2.5: -182
Total Sets Over 2.5: +134
Total Games Under 22.5: -110
Total Games Over 22.5: -120
Set 1 Winner Minaur: -174
Set 1 Winner Medvedev: +142
(According to FanDuel: FanDuel offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!)
Mandatory Image Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images
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