Winner to face Vacherot or Auger-Aliassime in the SF.
No. 6 seed Alex de Minaur and 13th seed Alexander Bublik will lock horns in the ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025 quarterfinals on Friday. While the Australian confirmed his spot in the Nitto ATP Finals after a resounding Round of 16 victory, his Kazakh colleague is still among the contenders for the final spot. The winner of this match will face Felix Auger-Aliassime or Valentin Vacherot in the semifinals. Today, we will give you all the stats and odds ahead of this encounter (via BetMGM).
Alex de Minaur came through a tough opening round battle against Gabriel Diallo of Canada in three sets. Having received a bye in Round-1, he directly entered the pre-quarterfinal stage. Here, he managed to overpower Karen Khachanov 6-2 6-2 to advance to the last eight. The 2025 season encompasses plenty of highs for the 26-year-old Australian – he won the Citi DC Open and finished as the runner-up in Rotterdam. The Demon has reached at least the quarterfinal in his last four tournaments, and won the Laver Cup with Team World in September.
With four trophies to his name in 2025, Alexander Bublik has gone through a resurrection of sorts. The World No. 16 announced himself with a quarterfinal finish at the French Open in June. Following this, he picked up titles in Halle, Gstaad, Kitzbühel and Hangzhou. Bublik enters this duel with a win-loss record of 36-20 throughout the season (64% success rate). With wins over Alexei Popyrin, Corentin Moutet and Taylor Fritz this week, the 28-year-old Kazakh powerhouse justified his 85% service game win rate and 70% break point save rate.
Alex de Minaur has a head-to-head record of 3-1 against Alexander Bublik. After losing the opening three encounters of the rivalry, the 6’5” giant earned his first victory at Roland Garros 2025.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Roland Garros | Round of 64 | Alexander Bublik | 2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024 Indian Wells | Round of 32 | Alex de Minaur | 7-5 6-0 |
| 2021 Barcelona | Round of 32 | Alex de Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2021 Antalya | Final | Alex de Minaur | 2-0 RET. |
| Alex de Minaur | Category | Alexander Bublik |
| 6 | Current Ranking | 16 |
| 304-175 | Career W-L Record | 188-170 |
| 55-20 | YTD W-L Record | 36-20 |
| 10 | Career Titles | 8 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 4 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
One of the standout parts of Bublik’s game against Fritz, according to his own admission, was his ability to convert his chances. He was changing direction with ease and seemed to be in control of the tempo throughout. With de Minaur enjoying pace on the ball, there could be frustrations galore for Bublik. The Australian is likely to capitalize on his opponent’s hot and cold temperament to inch closer towards victory.
Prediction: Alex de Minaur in three sets.
There is very little to separate Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik in the pre-match betting market. The Australian has a slight edge, with 3/4 odds in comparison to 11/10 for Bublik. According to the implied probability on the money line, de Minaur has a 53% chance of winning. Take a look at the odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: David Gonzales, Imagn Images)
