UFC 321- Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo Predictions, Betting Odds And Best Bets

Al-Selwady debuted in March 2024 and got stopped by Loik Radzhabov in the third round. Camilo earned his UFC shot by famously asking Dana White for a fight at a Q&A session, then lost his debut via submission to Gabe Green in May. Both fighters are searching for their first UFC victory, and someone’s luck has to change. This Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo bout represents two struggling fighters desperate to prove they belong at this level of competition.

Al-Selwady stands 5’8″ with a 69 inch reach and brings a 15-4 record that looks better on paper than in reality. He lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute at just 34% accuracy while absorbing 3.60. His striking defense sits at 59%, but his takedown defense is abysmal at 20%. All four of his career losses have come via knockout or TKO, a major red flag for any fighter.

Camilo measures 5’10” with the same 69 inch reach and owns a 9-3 record. His striking output is minimal at 1.49 per minute, though at 48% accuracy. He absorbs just 1.38 strikes with 55% defense. His wrestling shows promise with 3.44 takedowns per fight at 66% accuracy, but his 0% takedown defense and three submission losses raise serious questions about his grappling.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo Predictions And Picks

This fight comes down to which fighter’s weaknesses get exploited more brutally. Al-Selwady’s history of getting knocked out four times suggests a fragile chin that doesn’t recover well under sustained pressure. Camilo’s three submission losses and 0% takedown defense indicate major grappling vulnerabilities. The question becomes whether Al-Selwady can keep this standing and land clean shots, or if Camilo drags him down and grinds out a decision.

The striking exchanges favor neither fighter convincingly. Al-Selwady’s 34% accuracy is shockingly low for a professional fighter, suggesting wild, inefficient attacks. Camilo barely throws strikes at 1.49 per minute, preferring to set up his wrestling rather than stand and trade. If this becomes a kickboxing match, expect ugly, tentative striking from both men feeling each other out.

If we bet on this fight, we are going with Matheus Camilo via unanimous decision.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo MMA Betting Odds

This fight is a true pick’em with both fighters at -113 on FanDuel. The odds reflect complete uncertainty about two struggling UFC fighters.

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The odds for the fight going the distance stand at +116. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-148) reflect that expectation.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo Best Bets

Here are some of the best bets for Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo fight at UFC 321:

Over 2.5 Rounds (-112)

Neither fighter has shown elite finishing ability recently. Despite their flaws, both should survive to see the judges.

Camilo by Decision (+470)

Excellent value on the younger fighter with wrestling advantages. His 66% takedown accuracy against Al-Selwady’s 20% defense sets up control time.

Camilo Moneyline (-113)

If you’re picking a winner in this coin flip, take youth and wrestling over a fighter who’s been knocked out four times.

(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)

(Image Credit: Ron Chenoy – Imagn Images)

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!