Premier League Analysis – How Liverpool Can Still Lose the Premier League to Arsenal?

Arsenal's title hopes now rest on an extraordinary turn of events at the top of the Premier League table.

With just six games left in the 2024-25 Premier League season, Liverpool sit atop the table with 76 points – a commanding 13-point lead over second-placed Arsenal. While Arne Slot’s side look poised to reclaim the crown, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal aren’t out of the race just yet, mathematically.

Thanks to 10,000 simulations run by analyst Simon Tinsley, we can paint a picture of the rare but not impossible scenario in which Liverpool fail to win the Premier League title even from the position they are currently in. Tinsley’s site currently give Liverpool a 100% chance of winning the Premier League title. However, that figure is rounded up. When the model was run, Liverpool were crowned champions in 9,971 out of 10,000 simulations, which means in 29 scenarios, they did not finish first.

That leaves a slim but tangible 0.29% chance where things don’t go Liverpool’s way and Arsenal emerge as champions. In these cases, Liverpool’s form dips dramatically, while Arsenal capitalize by winning all their remaining matches.

Remaining Fixtures of Liverpool and Arsenal

Liverpool’s Remaining Fixtures	Arsenal’s Remaining Fixtures
Leicester City (Away)	Ipswich Town (Away)
Tottenham Hotspur (Home)	Crystal Palace (Home)
Chelsea (Away)	Bournemouth (Home)
Arsenal (Home)	Liverpool (Away)
Brighton & Hove Albion (Away)	Newcastle United (Home)
Crystal Palace (Home)	Southampton (Away)

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Across those 29 rare simulations, this was the distribution of the point totals for Liverpool and Arsenal:

• Arsenal 81, Liverpool 80: eight times
• Arsenal 79, Liverpool 79 (Arsenal win on goal difference): seven times
• Arsenal 81, Liverpool 81: six times
• Arsenal 81, Liverpool 78: four times
• Arsenal 81, Liverpool 79: three times
• Arsenal 77, Liverpool 77: one time

How Liverpool Can Still Lose the Premier League to Arsenal?

Arsenal remain mathematically in the Premier League title race, but their chances are slim. Arsenal’s title hopes now rest on an extraordinary turn of events at the top of the table. With just six games left, Liverpool hold a commanding 13-point lead, meaning Arsenal would need to win all their remaining matches and hope Liverpool collect no more than four points from theirs.

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What needs to happen for Arsenal to win the title?

Arsenal should win all six of their remaining matches.
Hope Liverpool lose at least four games out of six and drop points in one other game
Overcome the goal difference, currently favoring Liverpool by 13 goals.

Liverpool have been good this season. But when they’ve shown vulnerability, Arsenal have failed to capitalise on those opportunities. Unfortunately for Arsenal, those missed opportunities at crucial moments have put them in a challenging position as the season enters its final stretch.

But football is a game defined by its unpredictability, where the improbable often becomes reality. As unlikely as it may seem, the race isn’t mathematically over yet. And as long as there’s a glimmer of hope, Arsenal should keep pushing. After all, in football, you can never say never.

Arsenal

Liverpool

Premier League

Abhinav Goel

soccer

I am a soccer writer at The PlayOffs, covering everything from match analysis to transfer buzz and tactical deep dives. Ever since I was a kid, soccer has been more than just a sport to me—it’s been an obsession. Playing and watching the game from a young age fueled my passion, eventually leading me into the world of sports media and betting. Now, I get to analyze the sport I love and bring the latest updates to fans worldwide.