Flyweight battles often deliver non-stop action, and the Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales matchup promises exactly that November 8th at UFC Vegas 111. Both fighters enter desperate for momentum in a division where every win matters. This clash between proven veterans features explosive grappling exchanges and finishing instincts that should produce fireworks.
Schnell stands 5’8″ with a 70 inch reach. His 17-9 -1 NC shows an aggressive approach with 4.13 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy while absorbing 4.17. His striking defense sits at 55%, showing decent defensive awareness. However, his grappling presents concerns with just 0.49 takedowns per fight at 40% accuracy, though his 1.2 submission attempts show finishing instincts. His 43% takedown defense reveals a critical vulnerability against wrestlers.
Morales measures 5’6″ with a 69 inch reach. His 14-2 record showcases lower striking output at 2.02 per minute with 40% accuracy while absorbing just 2.11. He striking defense registers at 57%, slightly better than Schnell’s. His grappling metrics shine with 1.23 takedowns per fight at 42% accuracy and an elite 2.9 submission attempts per fight. His alarming 28% takedown defense presents the fight’s biggest statistical red flag.
This UFC fight breaks down to a pure grappling battle between two submission specialists with defensive wrestling holes. Morales holds advantages in striking defense and submission attempts at 2.9 per fight, elite numbers that create constant finishing threats. His lower volume striking keeps him fresher for grappling exchanges.
The statistics reveal a grappling mismatch favoring Morales. His 2.9 submission attempts per fight dwarf Schnell’s 1.2, and his superior takedown offense at 1.23 per fight should exploit Schnell’s vulnerable 43% takedown defense. Once this hits the mat, Morales’ submission game becomes overwhelming. Schnell’s own takedown struggles at 0.49 per fight mean he cannot impose his grappling, forcing him into Morales’ world.
If we bet on this fight, we are going with Joseph Morales to win by submission.
Joseph Morales enters as a significant favorite at -390 on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Matt Schnell comes in as the +280 underdog. The odds reflect Morales’ superior grappling statistics and submission finishing ability completely dominating this matchup.
The odds for the fight going the distance stand at +164. The probability of an early finish is higher and the odds (-215) reflect expectations given Morales’ submission attempts per fight and both fighters’ defensive wrestling vulnerabilities.
Here are the best bets for Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales fight:
Heavy favorite but justified by the grappling mismatch. Morales’ submission attempts against Schnell’s low takedown defense creates inevitable finishing scenarios.
Outstanding value on the most likely finish. Morales’ elite submission rate paired with Schnell’s defensive wrestling holes makes this the sharpest play available.
Excellent odds for early finish. Morales’ aggressive grappling should secure submissions quickly before Schnell’s experience becomes a factor. His finishing ability makes early rounds the highest probability outcome.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Ed Mulholland – Imagn Images)
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