Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig this weekend!
This Saturday at UFC Vegas 106, the co-main event features two fighters who couldn’t be more different in both appearance and fighting style. Rodolfo Bellato, the chiseled Brazilian powerhouse, squares off against Paul Craig, Scotland’s submission specialist. Their clash represents one of MMA’s most fascinating dynamics, the striker versus the grappler. Each man possessing the ability to end the fight in spectacular fashion.
This matchup serves as the perfect appetizer before the main course of Morales vs. Burns. Bellato enters with a UFC record of 1-0-1, still establishing himself in the promotion but already turning heads with his physical presence and striking power. Craig, the veteran submission artist, has faced the division’s elite and even holds a submission victory over current champion Magomed Ankalaev.
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When the cage door closes, fans will witness a fascinating contrast in fighting approaches. Bellato is the definition of explosive offense. The Brazilian’s muscular frame generates tremendous power in every strike, making him dangerous from the opening bell. He is a demolition man who seems just as willing to take damage as deliver it.
Craig brings an entirely different skillset to the table. The Scotsman’s striking wouldn’t win any beauty contests, but his submission game is among the most dangerous in the division. Craig has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat multiple times throughout his UFC career with last-minute triangle chokes and armbars.
The oddsmakers have made up their mind. According to BetMGM, Rodolfo Bellato is a substantial -550 favorite going into the fight. Paul Craig lags behind as a +435 underdog. These numbers reflect Bellato’s physical advantages and Craig’s recent struggles, having lost three of his last four fights.
While the odds heavily favor Bellato, MMA bettors know that styles make fights, and Craig’s specific skillset could prove troublesome for the Brazilian.
Despite the lopsided odds, this fight feels closer to a coin flip than the betting market suggests. Bellato certainly possesses the tools to end Craig’s night early with his explosive striking and physical advantages. If he connects clean in the first three minutes, we could see Craig added to Bellato’s highlight reel. However, the Brazilian’s defensive liabilities and questionable gas tank open the door for Craig’s grappling expertise to take over as the fight progresses.
Craig’s path to victory is clear. He must survive the opening blitz, initiate clinches against the cage, and look for takedown opportunities as Bellato begins to slow down. Once on the ground, Craig’s submission arsenal becomes a serious threat, especially against a fatiguing opponent.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the odds and betting on Paul Craig to win the fight via submission in the third round.
(Image Credit: Jason Silva – Imagn Images)
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