Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvareza at UFC Rio represents a fan favourite fight that almost guarantees a finish. Luque has been a welterweight staple for years, competing at 170 pounds against some of the division’s toughest fighters. His resume includes battles with Stephen Thompson, Belal Muhammad, and Geoff Neal. Alvarez, meanwhile, competes at lightweight (155 pounds) and is moving up for this catchweight bout. The Spaniard brings a 22-3 record and momentum from recent knockout victories.
Every fighter faces that inevitable moment when time starts winning the battle. Vicente Luque might be approaching that crossroads in his career. The Brazilian veteran has given fans countless memorable wars inside the octagon. But recent performances suggest the miles are catching up.
Alvarez represents everything that makes veteran fighters nervous. He has youth, size, skills, and hunger. His nickname ‘El Fenomeno’ suggests something special, and his performances back it up. This matchup pits experience against athleticism, and the outcome could define both men’s futures.
The physical differences between these fighters immediately jump off the page. Alvarez (22-3) stands an incredible 6’3″ tall while Luque measures 5’11”. That four inch height advantage is enormous, especially when combined with Alvarez’s 77 inch reach. Luque’s 75 inch reach is respectable for a welterweight, but he will be fighting uphill against the longer Spaniard.
Luque lands an impressive 5.02 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy. However, he also absorbs 5.25 strikes per minute, which is alarmingly high. His 52% striking defense isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either. Over time, those absorbed shots add up. Alvarez strikes at a slightly lower rate of 4.51 per minute but maintains similar 53% accuracy. More importantly, he only absorbs 3.32 strikes per minute. His 50% striking defense is comparable to Luque’s, but his length naturally keeps opponents at bay.
The grappling numbers tell an interesting story. Luque averages 0.97 takedowns per fight with 51% accuracy and defends 61% of takedown attempts. His submission average of 0.7 shows he hunts for finishes on the ground. Alvarez’s UFC stats look peculiar at first glance: zero takedown average and 0% accuracy. But his 1.2 submission average reveals the truth. Alvarez doesn’t shoot traditional takedowns. Instead, he catches submissions during scrambles or pulls guard. With 17 career submission victories, he’s one of the most dangerous ground fighters in the lightweight division!
The bookmakers have made their mind on this fight. According to FanDuel, Joel Alvarez is a massive -520 favourite. Meanwhile, Vicente Luque comes in at +350 underdog. Those odds reflect serious confidence in the Spanish fighter’s chances.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +350. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-550) reflect that.
This matchup presents serious problems for Vicente Luque. The size disadvantage, combined with Luque’s recent decline, is nearly insurmountable. Alvarez will use his height and reach advantage to control the striking exchanges. Luque’s only path to victory involves landing one of his signature power punches early before the fight develops.
The Brazilian’s durability has shown cracks in recent outings. His chin, once seemingly indestructible, has failed him against heavy hitters. Alvarez doesn’t possess one punch knockout power, but his accumulation of strikes and opportunistic finishing ability make him dangerous throughout. His submission game creates the most danger for Luque. The Spaniard excels at catching guillotines, triangles, and rear-naked chokes during transitions. If Alvarez can survive the early storm and drag this into deeper waters, his youth and cardio should carry him through.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Joel Alvarez to win via submission.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie – Imagn Images)
mma 
