The heavyweight division always delivers excitement because one punch can change everything instantly. This weekend’s UFC Rio card features an intriguing battle between two Brazilian heavyweights looking to make their mark. Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto brings together fighters with contrasting experience levels but similar fighting styles.
Diniz made his UFC debut earlier this year and showed impressive skills against Derrick Lewis in a losing effort. That fight proved he belongs at this level despite the setback. At 34 years old, he’s entering his physical prime for a heavyweight. Pinto, seven years younger at 27, represents the new generation of Brazilian heavyweights. His undefeated record catches attention, but the level of competition he’s faced remains questionable. Fighting in front of a Brazilian crowd adds pressure and energy for both men. One will leave with momentum, while the other faces tough questions about their future.
Jhonata Diniz stands 6’4″ tall. His 79-inch reach matches Pinto’s, so neither man enjoys a length advantage. Diniz lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute with an impressive 56% accuracy. Those numbers suggest he doesn’t just throw wildly hoping something connects. On defense, he absorbs 3.71 strikes per minute, which is reasonable for the heavyweight division. His 59% striking defense shows solid defensive awareness and head movement.
Where Diniz really shines is his takedown defense. He stuffs 78% of takedown attempts, demonstrating excellent balance and sprawling ability. However, his complete lack of takedown attempts (zero average) and submissions reveals a pure striker’s mentality. Diniz has no interest in grappling.
Mario Pinto (10-0) brings a slightly larger frame at 6’5″. He lands fewer strikes per minute at 3.67 compared to Diniz’s 4.58. However, his accuracy is absolutely elite at 71%. Pinto absorbs a concerning 5.29 strikes per minute, significantly higher than Diniz’s 3.71. His 51% striking defense also trails Diniz’s 59%.
Like Diniz, Pinto shows zero interest in wrestling. His takedown average sits at zero. However, his 100% takedown defense is perfect, though that stat likely reflects limited attempts against him rather than elite defensive grappling. His submission average also reads zero, confirming this fight will stay standing unless someone gets hurt badly.
The odds for this heavyweight clash sit remarkably tight. According to FanDuel, Jhonata Diniz opens as a slight favorite at -125. Meanwhile, Mario Pinto comes back at -102 underdog. Those numbers essentially declare this a pick’em fight. Both men carry knockout power and questionable chins based on their defensive statistics.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +148. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-190) reflect that.
This matchup comes down to who can implement their game plan while avoiding the other’s power. Diniz holds the experience advantage after facing UFC level competition. That exposure to elite heavyweights should help him manage the moment better. Pinto’s undefeated record looks impressive, but until he faces legitimate competition, questions remain about his true skill level.
The striking statistics favor Diniz in most meaningful categories. He lands more strikes per minute, absorbs fewer strikes, and defends better overall. Pinto’s elite accuracy is impressive, but it won’t matter if Diniz overwhelms him with volume. The younger fighter’s willingness to absorb over five strikes per minute against lesser competition suggests Diniz’s power could find a home early.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Jhonata Diniz to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Brad Penner – Imagn Images)
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