Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

UFC Fight Night 257 Prediction and Betting Odds – Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

Former champ Sterling meets submission ace Ortega in a clash at UFC Fight Night 257.

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 257 brings an intriguing catchweight battle as Brian Ortega faces former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling inside the Shanghai Indoor Stadium. Ortega, a longtime contender known for his submission skills, looks to reestablish himself after a tough run. Sterling, meanwhile, continues his climb in the 145-pound division, eager to bounce back from a recent setback and prove he remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the octagon.

Originally scheduled as a featherweight bout, Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling's bout will now be contested at a catchweight of 153 pounds.

They both hit the scale at 153 pounds. #UFCShanghai pic.twitter.com/2dNPfFoLoA
— UFC (@ufc) August 22, 2025

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling Preview

Ortega (16-4) has built his reputation on toughness and finishing ability, but recent years have tested his consistency. Since his breakthrough in 2014, Ortega has collected five performance bonuses and a “Fight of the Night” reputation. But he has just one win in his last four outings, a rematch submission win over Yair Rodriguez in February 2024. Before that, Ortega endured back-to-back losses to Alexander Volkanovski and Rodriguez and most recently dropped a decision to Diego Lopes at UFC 306 in September 2024.

Statistically, Ortega lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute but absorbs a concerning 6.59, with only 49% striking defense. His ground game remains elite, averaging 1.1 submissions per fight, but his takedown accuracy of 26% limits how often he initiates grappling exchanges.

Brian Ortega looked very unwell during his final face-off with Aljamain Sterling after the bout was moved to a 153-pound catchweight fight 😬#UFCShanghai

pic.twitter.com/AeK4CmxhEq
— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) August 22, 2025

Sterling (24-5) enters with a championship record and adaptability to the featherweight division. The former bantamweight king went 16-5 in that weight class, defending his belt three times before moving up. At 5’7” with a 71-inch reach, Sterling has a slight reach edge over Ortega. He has split his last four fights, defeating Henry Cejudo and Calvin Kattar but falling to Sean O’Malley and Movsar Evloev. Stat-wise Sterling lands 4.41 strikes per minute with 52% accuracy while absorbing just 2.21. He averages 2.51 takedowns per fight with 29% accuracy, and although his takedown defense sits at just 42%, submission threats average 0.7.

just a reminder that Aljamain Sterling will put on a masterclass this weekend and remind everyone why he is the funkmaster 🇯🇲 pic.twitter.com/Y4eh8VGWl1
— ACD MMA (@acdmma_) August 21, 2025

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling MMA Betting Odds

Per BetMGM, Sterling is a strong favorite at 2/7, while Ortega is the underdog at 13/5. The odds reflect Sterling’s efficiency and recent form, alongside Ortega’s struggles to put together wins despite his grit and skill.

ORTEGA vs STERLING! #UFCShanghai is LIVE TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus at 6amET! pic.twitter.com/VIxMIjuHMD
— danawhite (@danawhite) August 22, 2025

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling Prediction

Expect Ortega to have flashes of success on the feet, where his boxing remains sharp, but Sterling’s game plan will revolve around relentless takedowns and control. Ortega’s toughness makes a finish unlikely, yet Sterling’s ability to neutralize offense and rack up control time should prove decisive.

Prediction: Aljamain Sterling via unanimous decision.

Mandatory Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Aljamain Sterling

Brian Ortega

UFC Fight Night 257

Rudra Dubey

nfl

mma

I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.