Jan 18, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Islam Makhachev (red gloves) walks out for a ightweight title fight against Renato Moicano (not pictured) during UFC 311 at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

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UFC Analyst Dismisses Islam Makhachev Hype, Picks Jack Della Maddalena To Pull Off Major Upset At UFC 322

Picking against Islam Makhachev has become a losing bet in recent years. The Dagestani fighter has steamrolled through the lightweight division with his suffocating grappling and improved striking skills. He has defended his title multiple times and made elite fighters look average in the process. Most analysts and fans have learned to simply accept that Islam wins fights, no matter who stands across from him. But one respected voice in MMA isn’t buying the hype for UFC 322, and his reasoning might actually make sense.

Kenny Florian has seen it all during his time in the sport as both a fighter and analyst. The former UFC and PFL commentator knows what it takes to compete at the highest level. He’s also experienced moving between four weight classes firsthand, starting his career at middleweight before eventually dropping down to featherweight. That unique perspective gives his analysis extra weight when discussing Islam Makhachev’s jump up to welterweight to challenge Jack Della Maddalena for the belt at UFC 322.

Kenny Florian Reveals The Size, Strength And Pressure Factor Against Islam Makhachev

Florian isn’t dismissing Makhachev’s skills or accomplishments at lightweight. He acknowledges Islam could potentially smash JDM against the cage and rack up takedowns round after round. But he’s puzzled by the odds makers treating this like another routine Makhachev victory. The 15-pound jump from lightweight to welterweight represents a massive difference that people seem to be overlooking completely.

Florian points out something interesting about the psychology of this matchup. Everyone has jumped on the Islam Makhachev train, which means the pressure sits squarely on his shoulders. JDM holds the belt and has nothing to lose. He can fight loose and free while Makhachev (27-1) carries expectations of continuing his dominance. That dynamic flip could play a major role when things get tough. Florian explained on his Anik & Florian Podcast.

“Moving around a 170-pound body in practice is way different than moving around a 170-pound body in a fight… The crazy thing about this is, everyone is on the Islam Makhachev train right now, but I feel like there’s more pressure on Islam than there is JDM, and JDM is the guy who has the belt.”

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That’s the crux of his argument. Islam might feel strong in training against welterweights, but the cage brings different energy entirely. Dealing with that size disadvantage for the first time in a title fight adds layers of doubt and pressure. Moreover, the pressure that he is going in the fight with might hamper his performance.

Why Jack Della Maddalena Has Real Advantages

The analyst likes JDM’s chances specifically because of the value in this spot. Della Maddalena brings natural welterweight size and strength that Islam has never dealt with before. His striking remains sharp and dangerous. If he can stuff enough takedowns and force Islam to stand with him, the Australian has serious knockout power to end the fight.

Florian’s background gives him credibility on this subject. He fought at four different weight classes during his UFC career. He knows how much harder everything becomes when facing naturally bigger, stronger opponents. The strength difference isn’t something you can simply overcome with technique alone when both fighters possess elite skills.

The fight happens this weekend at Madison Square Garden, and Florian is sticking with his upset pick. He believes JDM will stifle Makhachev enough to land significant damage and either finish the fight or win on the scorecards. It’s a bold prediction that goes against popular opinion, but sometimes the best analysis comes from questioning what everyone else assumes is inevitable.

(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images)

Islam Makhachev

Jack Della Maddalena

Kenny Florian

UFC 322

Zaid Quraishi

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I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!