UFC 321- Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo Predictions, Betting Odds And Best Bets

Azat Maksum sits at just 1-2 in the UFC despite looking phenomenal in his recent losses. His unanimous decision defeat to Tagir Ulanbekov showcased fantastic wrestling and grappling that made the favorite work hard for victory. Before that, his “Fight of the Night” loss to Charles Johnson proved he belongs at this level. Now he faces Mitch Raposo at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi this Saturday. Raposo enters winless at 0-2 in the UFC after close split decisions against tough opponents like Sumudaerji and undefeated Andre Lima. This Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo matchup features two flyweights desperate for their first real UFC breakthrough.

Maksum stands 5’7″ with an impressive 70 inch reach and brings a 15-2 record. He lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute, though at concerning 28% accuracy, while absorbing 5.00. His striking defense sits at 52%, but his wrestling shines with 85% takedown defense and 2.33 attempts per fight.

Raposo measures just 5’5″ with a 64 inch reach. His 9-3 record shows promise, but his UFC performances reveal limitations. He lands just 1.62 strikes per minute at 33% accuracy while absorbing 3.20. His wrestling shows 3.54 takedowns per fight at 37% accuracy, but his 50% takedown defense is exploitable.

Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo Predictions And Picks

This fight comes down to whether Raposo’s wrestling volume can overcome Maksum’s superior defensive grappling and striking output. Raposo’s game plan against Sumudaerji involved attempting 19 takedowns, landing six, and controlling over four minutes. However, he lost the striking battle 9-45 in that fight, showing his complete reliance on grappling. That strategy won’t work against Maksum, who defended all eight of Ulanbekov’s takedown attempts while landing three of his own.

The concerning stats for Maksum involve his 28% striking accuracy and 5.00 strikes absorbed per minute. However, against Raposo’s limited 1.62 strike output and low-volume approach, those defensive holes won’t get exploited. Raposo lacks the striking power or precision to capitalize on Maksum’s flaws. His best chance involves dragging Maksum into grinding exchanges against the cage, but even there, Maksum’s superior wrestling should allow him to reverse positions and escape.

If we bet on this fight, we are going with Azat Maksum to win via unanimous decision.

Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo MMA Betting Odds

According to FanDuel, Azat Maksum enters as a significant favorite at -420, Meanwhile, Mitch Raposo enters as the +330 underdog. The odds reflect confidence in Maksum’s superior skills despite his poor UFC record making him dangerous for the winless Raposo.

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The odds for the fight going the distance stand at -136. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is slightly lower and the odds (+108) reflect that near-even expectation.

Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo Best Bets

Here are some of the best bets for Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo fight at UFC 321:

Maksum by Decision (+110)

Fans are getting plus money on the most likely outcome. Maksum’s wrestling defense and striking volume should control all three rounds against Raposo’s limited offense.

Over 2.5 Rounds (-168)

Both fighters lack consistent finishing ability. Maksum’s decision-heavy style suggests this reaches the judges.

Maksum Moneyline (-420)

Steep odds but justified given the skill gap. Maksum is clearly the better fighter facing a winless opponent with exploitable weaknesses.

(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)

(Image Credit: Sam Navarro – Imagn Images)

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!