The UFC touches down in Azerbaijan for the first time with an electrifying lightweight clash at UFC Baku on June 21, 2025, inside the vibrant Baku Crystal Hall. Local star Tofiq Musayev makes his highly anticipated Octagon debut, carrying the weight of a passionate Azerbaijan crowd. A former Rizin Grand Prix champion, Musayev is known for his explosive striking and unrelentless drive to cement his name firmly amongst the UFC elites.
Opposing him is Myktybek Orolbai, a tenacious Kyrgyz fighter looking to derail the hometown hero’s UFC debut. Orolbai brings suffocating wrestling and a never-back-down mentality, setting the stage for a classic striker-versus-grappler showdown. With both fighters hungry for victory, this high-stakes matchup promises an intense action and a chance to shine on a historic night. So the question to be asked is, who will rise to the occasion and leave the Octagon victorious? Let’s find out more.
At UFC Baku, Tofiq Musayev (22-5-0 along with 18 KOs) makes his UFC debut against Myktybek Orolbai (13-2-1 with 6 KOs, 5 submissions) in a 165-pound catchweight clash at Baku Crystal Hall. Musayev, a 35-year old Azerbaijani and former Rizin Lightweight Grand Prix champion, brings in his striking power, with 14 first-round finishes and notable wins over Patricky Pitbull and Koji Takeda. Backed by his home crowd, the situation could not be any better for him as he aims to make a statement.
Meanwhile Orolbai, 27-year-old Kyrgyz prospect with a 2-1 UFC record, is coming off a thrilling split-decision loss to Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 308. Known for his relentless wrestling, averaging over seven takedowns per 15 minutes, and a powerful right hand, Orolbai may most likely capitalize on his UFC experience and try to secure a win, while spoiling Musayev’s UFC debut. Expect a striker-vs.-grappler showdown, where Musayev’s knockout power will meet Orolbai’s relentless wrestling and grappling game.
The Betting market primarily banks on Orolbai’s UFC experience and wrestling to get him the win. According to BetMGM, Orolbai is looked at as the -160 favorite, which indicates that the oddsmakers are expecting Orolbai to walk away with the win. Meanwhile, Musayev is a +135 underdog, which suggests that the oddsmakers expect him to lose his debut fight in the UFC.
According to BetMGM, the fight going to distance seems unlikely with odds currently at -140 to end before the final bell to +100 to see the judges decision.
Myktybek Orolbai is favored to defeat Tofiq Musayev via decision at UFC Baku. His relentless wrestling, averaging 7 takedowns in 15 minutes, should neutralize Musyev’s explosive striking. At 27, Orolbai’s youth and cardio edge out the 35-year-old making his UFC debut, who may fade under pressure. Musayev’s 18 KOs are a threat, but his vulnerability to grapplers, evidenced by three submission losses, plays right into Orolbai’s hands.
Expect Orolbai to take control of the situation early by securing takedowns and controlling the fight on the mat, grinding out a unanimous decision victory in a competitive, high-stakes battle.
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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