Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum fight at UFC Baku!
Azat Maksum found himself stepping into the biggest fight of his career after Kyoji Horiguchi pulled out of his scheduled bout with Tagir Ulanbekov last month. This flyweight clash represents a massive shift in expectations for both fighters. Ulanbekov was originally set to face a former UFC title challenger and RIZIN/Bellator champion in what would have been a title eliminator. Instead, he faces a talented but largely untested Kazakh fighter who’s looking to make a name for himself on the biggest stage possible.
Ulanbekov comes from the legendary Eagles MMA camp and carries all the expectations that come with training alongside Khabib Nurmagomedov’s crew. Maksum represents the hungry challenger archetype. He was undefeated for most of his career until Charles Johnson handed him his first professional loss in a barn-burner that earned “Fight of the Night” honors.
This flyweight bout features two southpaws with identical physical measurements but vastly different fighting approaches. Ulanbekov stands 5’7″ with a 70-inch reach, same as Maksum, but their fighting styles couldn’t be more different. The Dagestani wrestler averages 3.56 takedowns per fight with 47% accuracy and attempts 1.7 submissions per contest. His striking numbers are respectable at 3.13 strikes landed per minute with 47% accuracy, but his real weapon lies in his ground control and submission threats.
Maksum brings a more well-rounded but less specialized approach to the cage. He lands 2.80 strikes per minute but connects at just 23% accuracy, suggesting he throws more volume than precision shots. His takedown numbers tell an interesting story – 2.00 attempts per fight with only 22% success rate, indicating he’s more of a scrambler than a pure wrestler. However, his 66% takedown defense is actually better than Ulanbekov’s 63%, which could prove crucial if this fight turns into a grappling match.
According to BetMGM, the betting market heavily favors Tagir Ulanbekov at a massive -550. Meanwhile, Azat Maksum sits at +400. These odds reflect the significant skill gap that oddsmakers perceive between a ranked contender and a prospect. Ulanbekov’s status as a heavy favorite makes sense given his pedigree, camp affiliation, and recent performances against quality opposition.
The betting for the fight to go the distance on BetMGM shows an interesting play. The odds for this fight seeing the judges scorecards stands at +145, while the fight ending in the 3 rounds is currently at -200. This means that the oddsmakers are seeing this as an early finish.
This fight shapes up as a classic grappler versus striker matchup. Ulanbekov’s path to victory runs through his superior wrestling and ground control. His ability to chain takedowns and maintain top position should allow him to dictate where this fight takes place.
Maksum needs to stuff takedowns early and often while finding success on the feet. His striking volume gives him opportunities to catch Ulanbekov during exchanges, but his low accuracy rate suggests he will need to be more selective with his shots. The Kazakh fighter’s best chance comes from catching Ulanbekov in transition or landing something big early before the wrestling takes over.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Tagir Ulenbekov to win the fight via submission.
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images)
mma
