Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty WNBA Playoffs Game 3 Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds- 09/19/2025

The Phoenix Mercury and the New York Liberty will meet for one last time in the 2025 WNBA season. The Game 3 clash between them is scheduled on Friday, September 19, at PHX Arena in Arizona. The winner of the series will take on the Minnesota Lynx in the best-of-five semifinals series, beginning on Sunday, September 21. 

The series between the Mercury and the Liberty began with the reigning champions clinching a seven-point win. The Mercury then answered with a huge 26-point win and levelled the series. While the Liberty were hopeful of sweeping the series, their leading scorer Breanna Stewart sprained her MCL. She was restricted to three quarters and a total of 30 minutes of action in Game 2. 

On top of that, a total of five Mercury players including Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, Kathryn Westbeld, and DeWanna Bonner finished with double-digit scores. In the upcoming game, the defending champions would hope for a better gameplay by their scoring trio, consisting of Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones. 

Where to Watch Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty WNBA Playoffs Game 3 

Time: 9 pm ET
Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
Where to Watch: ESPN2, WNBA League Pass 

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Lineups, News, Form 

Phoenix Mercury 

After losing the opening game with a decent margin, the Mercury pulled themselves back in the series after being on the cusp of elimination. Satou Sabally, who failed to deliver in the series opener, dropped 15 points, along with Alyssa Thomas. DeWanna Bonner grabbed eight rebounds, while Alyssa Thomas led the charts in assists with seven. 

Here are a few facts about the Mercury: 

• Phoenix averages 82.8 points per game, which is only 2.5 points more than what the Liberty allow. 
• They are fourth-ranked in points allowed per game at 80.1 points. 
• They have totaled 118 more points than their opponents this season at 2.7 points per game on an average. 

Mercury Expected Lineup 

Alyssa Thomas (F), Satou Sabally (F), Natasha Mack (C), Kahleah Copper (G), Monique Akoa Makani (G)
Key Bench Players: Kathryn Westbeld, Kalani Brown
Injuries: None. They are all fit and fine.

New York Liberty 

The Liberty kicked off their playoffs campaign on a favorable note, securing an easy win over their counterparts. However, their success came at the cost of the injury of their star player, Breanna Stewart. Her limited action in Game 2, along with a flop offensive show by the entire team snatched their victory and a chance to sweep the series. 

Nevertheless, they are still in contention, and stand a chance to make their way through to the semifinals. Here are a few stats and facts about the reigning champions. 

• New York is the fourth-ranked scoring team in the WNBA at 84.4 ppg. 
• The team has scored 179 more points than its opponents at 4.1 points per game. 
• Sabrina Ionescu leads the Liberty in threes made per game at 2.1 3pm. 

Liberty Expected Lineup 

Breanna Stewart (F), Leonie Fiebich (F), Jonquel Jones (C ), Natasha Cloud (G), Sabrina Ionescu (G) 
Key Bench Players: Kennedy Burke, Marine Johanes, Nyara Sabally
Injuries: Everything’s fine with the Liberty. 

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Total Over/Under Prediction- WNBA Best Bets 

The Mercury enter the upcoming game as clear favorites with a -2.5 spread and -140 moneyline odds. While the situation was earlier in favor of the defending champions, the poor offensive prowess by them in Game 2 flipped the odds. The total is set at 155.6, suggesting that it could be a low-scoring contest, similar to their last two matchups. 

Here is an overview of my selections: 

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Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Player Props Predictions- WNBA Betting Picks 

Sabrina Ionescu O 17.5 Points– The scoring average for Sabrina Ionescu in the first two games of the playoffs is 12.5 points. However, considering the forthcoming clash requires all the players to step up their games, she could hit over the mark. 

Alyssa Thomas U 8.5 Assists– Thomas averages 7.5 assists against the Liberty in Game 1 and 2 of the 2025 WNBA playoffs. She is expected to stay under in the series finale. 

Satou Sabally O 2.5 Assists– Satou Sabally has dished out 3.0 assists per game in last two playoff games against the Liberty. She is expected to stay over in the upcoming game. 

Jonquel Jones O 9.5 Rebounds– Jonquel Jones is averaging 12.5 rebounds per game this postseason. We can expect her to grab over 9.5 rebounds in Game 3 against the Mercury.

Main Pick: Sabrina Ionescu O 17.5 Points at FanDuel for +100. 

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Spread Prediction

The Liberty, the 2024 WNBA winners, were in red-hot form in the beginning of the 2025 season. However, over time, they lost their momentum, and slumped to many weaker teams, falling to the fifth spot. Phoenix, on the other hand, made the final push and finished a spot higher than its rivals. Moreover, they hold a better home record (12-10) as compared to what New York was on the road (10-12). 

Stewart’s injury and a poor scoring game by the Liberty also adds up to the possibilities of them getting knocked out of the playoffs in Game 3. 

While one can expect a close contest, the Mercury are expected to prevail with a minimum margin. 

Spread/Moneyline Pick: Mercury for -2.5 at -140 on FanDuel

FAQs for Mercury vs Liberty Game 3

Garima Ranawat

Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.

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