The 2025 WNBA semi-finals are heating up with elimination on the line. After dropping the series opener in blowout fashion, the Mercury stole Game 2 with a historic 20-point comeback in Game 2. They continued their dominance back at home and grabbed a 2-1 series lead with a 84-76 victory in Game 3.
Now, everything comes down to a crucial Game 4, where the fourth seeded Mercury host top-seeded Lynx, who are on the edge of getting kicked off from race to finale. As the series shifts to a do-or-die battle at PHX Arena, Mercury stars including Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally will look to exploit Lynx’s vulnerability who head into game without star forward Napheesa Collier and head coach Cheryl Reeve.
The Mercury headed into the playoffs as a surprising fourth seed after finishing the regular season with 27-17 record. In the opening round, they handed a gritty 2-1 defeat to the reigning champions, New York Liberty, and secured their first semifinals berth since 2021. In the regular season, they averaged 82.8 points per game (seventh in the league), while limiting foes to 80.1 points per game.
In the semifinals, they dropped the series opener 82-69 but roared back with two consecutive victories to take a 2-1 lead. In the last two games, they outscored their rivals 47-31 and 36-22 in second half, while pushing Game 2 to a thrilling overtime.
Here are a few facts and stats about the Mercury:
Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, Natasha Mack, Kahleah Copper, Moniqe Akoa Makani
Key Bench Players: Sami Whitcomb, DeWanna Bonner
Injuries: None to report
The Lynx finished the regular season with the league best 34-10 record, grabbing top spot in the standings. They entered the playoffs as heavy favorites to not only proceed to the Finals but also clinch the championship. In the opening round, they swept the Golden State Valkyries 2-0, and in the began the semifinals with a blowout victory over the Mercury.
However, they couldn’t continue their winning momentum and slumped to the Mercury in Game 2 and Game 3. Rubbing salt on their wounds was Napheesa Collier’s injury in the final seconds of the last game. The star forward sits out on Sunday, while head coach Cheryl Reeve faces a one-game suspension due to her outburst on Friday.
During the regular season, they averaged 86.1 points (first in league) while limiting the rivals to 76.7 points per game (second in league). Here are a few stats about them:
Bridget Carleton, Dorka Juhász, Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams
Key Bench Player: Natisha Hiedeman
Injuries: DiJonai Carrington (left foot)
Napheesa Collier (left ankle)
The Mercury enter crucial Game 4 as favorites to win by at least five points and -215 on moneyline. Without Collier and sidelined head coach Reeve, expect Mercury to limit Lynx to a decent score and post total under 155.0.
Here is an overview of my picks:
| Picks | Odds, as per FanDuel |
| Total U 155.0 | -110 |
| Spread: Mercury -5 | -110 |
| Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points | -118 |
| Moneyline: Mercury | -215 |
Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points: Thomas can be backed to drop over 15.5 points in the crucial game. She has averaged 17.8 points through six playoff games. In the last four games, she has scored over 15 points.
Courtney Williams O 5.5 Assists: One can wager for Williams to dish out over 5.5 assists on Sunday. She maintains an average of 6.0 assists per game in the postseason, and has recorded over six assists in three of last five games.
Satou Sabally U 16.5 Points: Sabally averages 17.3 points per game during the playoffs. However, the Lynx will restrict her under 16.5 points, given what is at stake for them.
Kahleah Copper O 1.5 3PM: Copper has hit 1.2 threes in through six playoff games. In three of last four games, she has recorded at least two threes, making it highly likely for her to come up with the same kind of gameplay.
Main Pick: Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points at -118 on FanDuel
The Phoenix Mercury trailed the Lynx 1-3 during their regular season clashes, but now own the playoffs with notable fourth-quarter gameplays. While the Lynx would have still maintained an upper hand over their rivals, Collier’s injury puts them in tough spot. Apart from that, Mercury would have Thomas and Sabally’s playmaking, backed by a roaring home crowd.
We see the Mercury pulling away a late win in Game 4 and secure a series victory to advance to the finals.
Spread/ Moneyline Pick: Phoenix Mercury -5 at -110 on FanDuel
The Mercury are favored to win by 5 points in Game 4 against the Lynx.
Total points for Game 4 between the Mercury and Lynx is set at 155.5 points.
The moneyline is set at the Mercury (-215) and Lynx at (+172).
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