Winner of this match will reach their first semifinal of the year
The WTA Berlin Open has now reached the quarterfinal stage of the tournament. We have already seen 3 of the top 4 seeds fall by the wayside as Coco Gauff (2), Jessica Pegula (3), and Jasmine Paolini (4) have all crashed out of the tournament.
In the first quarterfinal for the day, Ons Jabeur takes on Marketa Vondrousova at the Steffi Graf Stadion for a place in the semifinals. This is the pair’s first meeting on grass since their 2023 Wimbledon final.
2025 has been quite a struggle for the former three-time major finalist, Ons Jabeur. The Tunisian has some quarterfinal appearances along the way this season, but has not managed to progress beyond that. However, she has looked good on grass so far, especially with a dominating straight-set win over Jasmine Paolini in the previous round.
Serving has been somewhat of a letdown for Jabeur this year. She has only 61 aces but 57 double faults, and while she has won 66.7% of her service games, she has also conceded a service break almost 42% of the time. In general, her receiving numbers are decent.
Vondrousova, on the other hand, has also had a disappointing campaign thus far, with only one quarterfinal appearance in Abu Dhabi. However, the Czech player has been suffering from injury woes over the past year.
The 2023 Wimbledon winner has also struggled on her serve, hitting only 52 aces but serving 66 double faults this year. Moreover, she has managed to win just over 62% of her service games. However, a win over the 2025 Australian Open winner, Jessica Pegula, in the first round will surely give her plenty of confidence.
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Ons Jabeur and Marketa Vondrousova have faced off 8 times in the past. The pair is well-versed with one another’s game, and the current head-to-head stands even at 4-4.
This rivalry started in 2015 in Prague, where the Czech romped to a straight sets victory. Since then, each one has gone on a three-game win streak against the other, until their last meeting in 2023 at the WTA Finals in Mexico, where Jabeur got the better of her opponent.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | WTA Finals, Mexico | Round 1 | Ons Jabeur | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2016 | Wimbledon | Final | Marketa Vondrousova | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2021 | Indian Wells | Round of 32 | Marketa Vondrousova | 7-4, 6-4 |
| 2022 | Australian Open | Round of 64 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1-6, 7-5, 1-6 |
| 2023 | Stuttgart Open | Round of 32 | Ons Jabeur | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Eastbourne Open | Round of 32 | Ons Jabeur | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 2023 | Sunrise, Florida | Round of 16 | Ons Jabeur | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Prague Open | Qualifying (R2) | Marketa Vondrousova | 6-3, 3-0 RET |
| Ons Jabeur | Category | Marketa Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| 61 | Ranking | 164 |
| 457-257 | Career W-L | 282-126 |
| 12-11 | YTD W-L | 6-5 |
| 5 | Career Titles | 2 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 1 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
The pair have a very tight head-to-head standing at 4-4, and the surface hasn’t played any part as well. On grass, they are again tied at 1-1, but their last meeting on this surface came in the 2023 Wimbledon final, in which Vondrousova came through in straight sets.
Both players are showing good form at the moment, but Jabeur’s recent struggles, coupled with Vondrousova’s ability to counter her opponent’s power game, give her the slight edge. This should be an interesting match and is likely to go the distance.
Match Prediction: Vondrusova in three sets
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As per BetMGM, both players have a 50% chance of winning this match. The money line for this match is also evenly poised, with neither player being favored over the other. (Sourced from BetMGM).
As for the number of games and sets, the betting odds by BetMGM reflect that the match is expected to be an extremely close contest, with nothing separating the two players.
| Bet | Ons Jabeur | Marketa Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Match Odds | 9/10 | 9/10 |
| Set Betting (2-0) | 2/1 | 2/1 |
| Set Betting (2-1) | 10/3 | 10/3 |
The over-under for the number of sets and games in this match is as follows:
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals, and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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