NFL Week 16 playoff scenarios: Teams on the Brink of Postseason Berths

Week 16 playoff scenarios: who’s in, out, and still fighting.

With Week 16 of the NFL season upon us, the playoff picture is coming into sharp focus—or perhaps not. Depending on where you look, the paths to the postseason range from straightforward clinching scenarios to a chaotic web of “if-then” possibilities. Here’s a breakdown of what’s at stake and why this week might define the final weeks of the regular season.

Week 16 playoff scenarios, including potential clinching for the #Broncos, #Chargers and #Commanders. pic.twitter.com/pVwiVLyD0L
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 17, 2024

AFC Scenarios

Clinched Playoff Berths:
- Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West Champions)
- Buffalo Bills (AFC East Champions)
- Houston Texans (AFC South Champions)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Playoff Berth)
Week 16 Clinching Scenarios:
- Kansas City Chiefs (13-1): Can clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed, securing a first-round bye and home-field advantage, with a win against the Houston Texans and a Buffalo Bills loss.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4): Can clinch the AFC North division title with a win against the Baltimore Ravens.
- Denver Broncos (9-5): Can secure a playoff berth with a win against the Los Angeles Chargers, or if the Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, and Miami Dolphins all lose.
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-6): Can clinch a playoff spot with a win, combined with losses by the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins.
- Baltimore Ravens (9-5): Can secure a playoff berth with a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, or if the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins both lose.

NFC Scenarios

Clinched Playoff Berths:
- Detroit Lions
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Minnesota Vikings
Week 16 Clinching Scenarios:
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-2): Can clinch the NFC East division title with a win against the Washington Commanders.
- Green Bay Packers (10-4): Can secure a playoff berth with a win against the New Orleans Saints.
- Washington Commanders (9-5): Can clinch a playoff spot with a win, combined with an Atlanta Falcons loss and a loss by either the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks.

Elimination Scenarios

NFC

New Orleans Saints:
- Eliminated with a loss or tie against the Packers.
- Eliminated if the Buccaneers win or tie against the Cowboys.
- Eliminated if the Falcons win against the Giants.
Dallas Cowboys:
- Eliminated with a loss or tie against the Buccaneers.
- Eliminated if the Commanders win or tie against the Eagles.
Arizona Cardinals:
- Eliminated with a loss against the Panthers and a Rams win against the Jets.
- Eliminated with a loss and a Seahawks win or tie against the Vikings.
San Francisco 49ers:
- Eliminated with a loss or tie against the Dolphins.
- Eliminated if the Seahawks win against the Vikings and the Rams win against the Jets.

AFC

Miami Dolphins:
- Eliminated with a loss to the 49ers and a Chargers win or tie against the Broncos.
Cincinnati Bengals:
- Eliminated with a loss to the Browns.
- Eliminated with a tie and a Chargers win or tie against the Broncos.
Indianapolis Colts:
- Eliminated with a loss to the Titans and a Chargers win or tie against the Broncos.
- Eliminated with a tie and a Chargers win against the Broncos.

Notable Matchups to Watch

Chiefs vs. Texans (Saturday, 1 PM ET)
Kansas City looks to secure home-field advantage but must do so without a fully healthy Patrick Mahomes, who remains questionable with a mild ankle sprain.
Steelers vs. Ravens (Saturday, 4:30 PM ET)
A pivotal AFC North showdown, with Pittsburgh aiming to lock up the division and Baltimore fighting for a guaranteed playoff spot.
Eagles vs. Commanders (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
Philadelphia has a chance to solidify its divisional dominance, while Washington looks to complete an improbable playoff push under a new regime.
Packers vs. Saints (Monday, 8:15 PM ET)
Green Bay aims to simplify its playoff path by handling a struggling Saints team, avoiding reliance on outside help.

Image credit: @gracesporttakes on X (Formerly Twitter)

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Natasha Bose

I write about sports because, well, it brings in the big bucks! I’m not some lifelong analyst or stats guru, truth being told, you’ve probably never heard of me!—I just know how to research, write, and make things sound good. That’s the job!
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